CHARLOTTE, North Carolina — Midwestern Republican leaders are confident President Trump will again prevail in their states in November and that Joe Biden won’t be able to rebuild the Democrats’ so-called “blue wall,” citing cracks in their opposition’s organizing capacity, claiming an enthusiasm advantage, and predicting a backlash to coronavirus-related economic restrictions.
In interviews with the Washington Examiner during the Republican National Committee in-person business meeting in Charlotte, heads of the GOP state parties in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — all states Trump won over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016 by razor-thin margins — projected confidence that, at times, bordered on cockiness about Trump’s chances of again sweeping the states.
“I’m not really worried about anything,” said Michigan Republican Party Chairwoman Laura Cox.
Lawrence Tabas, chairman of the Pennsylvania GOP, said he “definitely” disagreed with the perception Biden was performing well in his state.
And Andrew Hitt, Wisconsin Republican Party chairman, said that it’s the Democrats who are “overconfident” about their prospects. “They think they’re ahead.”
RealClearPolitics averages of recent polls show Trump is currently losing to Biden in each of the states. Biden is up in Michigan by 6.7%, Pennsylvania by 5.7%, and Wisconsin by 6.5%.
Polls are “only a snapshot in time,” Tabas said. He argued that some voters aren’t comfortable voicing their support of Trump and, even if the surveys were accurate, Biden’s margin was shrinking, and the president was overperforming compared to four years ago.
“If the issue is the economy, and everything we’re seeing is that the economy will be the No. 1 issue, the president is beating Biden in Pennsylvania by 5 points,” Tabas said.
He projected that Trump’s standing would improve because of anger over Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic. “I think the Democrats in our state made a major, major strategic error in allowing Gov. Wolf to literally act, for the most part, like a real dictator.”
Cox in Michigan echoed the prediction that coronavirus-related restrictions would motivate voters to turn out against Democrats. “Small businesses are crumbling and falling apart across the state of Michigan because of our Democrat governor,” Gretchen Whitmer, and her “executive orders,” she said.
“The president is the man to guide us through this economic downturn,” Cox said.
For Democrats, returning Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to their ledger would not only be a source of bragging rights after Clinton’s embarrassing defeats last cycle, but part of a successful electoral strategy. If Trump carries every other state he won in 2016 and Biden takes all those that Clinton won, neither can pass the 270 Electoral College vote without at least one of the three states.
The trio of state GOP heads thinks their organizing capabilities and the fact that they have resumed in-person activities such as door-knocking, while the Biden campaign and Democrats remain virtual, will give Republicans an edge.
Cox said voters are responding well to door-knocking, despite the pandemic. “I think people are hungry to have personal contact,” she said, adding that volunteers step back 6 feet after tapping on any entrance.
There are more than 60 staffers in Michigan, who have made 1.5 million-plus voter contacts, according to Cox. In Wisconsin, Hitt said there are around 100 paid Trump and party staffers on the ground, compared to about 20 in the 2016 cycle, and there has been a state director since last summer. Tabas said Pennsylvania has more than 100 staff based in 100 offices, who have reached out to voters in excess of 5 million times.
In contrast, Biden’s campaign didn’t announce state organizing hires in Michigan and Wisconsin until the end of June this year. Pennsylvania leaders weren’t appointed until July.
Trump and Vice President Mike Pence have helped organizing efforts by visiting Wisconsin five times this year, and Hitt noted that Biden has not been to Wisconsin at all this cycle. He had the length of Biden’s absence down to the day — “662 days, I believe,” since the former vice president’s last trip. Clinton famously did not visit Wisconsin in 2016, either, and was blindsided by her loss there.
“That’s just not a winning strategy. And if they think that they can flood the market with a bunch of TV ads and somehow win, they really do not understand this concept,” Hitt said. “There have been other campaign mistakes where you try to do it just with a bunch of TV ads. It doesn’t work in Wisconsin.”
Tabas in Pennsylvania also referenced the power of Trump’s presence.
“If he were to hide in his basement for the next 70 days, that would be a bad thing, but he’s not going to do that. The president is our secret weapon, our best asset when he speaks and people hear him unfiltered,” he said, alluding to Biden rarely leaving his home in Wilmington, Delaware, since the pandemic swept the country.
A theme among all the state party chiefs and other delegates at the Republican meeting in Charlotte was they have a strength due to enthusiasm about voting for the president, downplaying how extreme disapproval of Trump could drive Democrats to the polls.
Tabas conceded Philadelphia’s suburbs have tilted toward the Democrats, but he said their support had plateaued and that population shifts in Pennsylvania’s west and central regions are in Republicans’ favor. He touted increases in GOP voter registration in the state — Democrats’ registration advantage there has decreased by 113,000 since 2016.
Republican enthusiasm in Wisconsin has eclipsed the last greatest peak, around 2010 and 2012, when former Gov. Scott Walker was battling recall elections, according to Hitt. And he contended that the Democrats’ decision to make Wilmington, Delaware, essentially the host city of the Democratic convention will hurt them in the state.
“You get all the way to the end of the Democrats’ convention, Joe Biden does his acceptance speech, and then he walks outside, and there are fireworks, there’s some outside stage,” Hitt said. “Milwaukee is kind of sitting back going, ‘Wait a second, why couldn’t you have done that here?’”
Trump echoed that analysis when speaking to Republican convention delegates in Charlotte on Monday. “Joe Biden was going to have a convention in Milwaukee, and they didn’t go there at all. They didn’t do this,” he said. “I think you’re going to remember that play on Nov. 3.”
