Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is threatening to scrap a key agreement with the U.S. military in an attempt to force Washington to provide his country with Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccines.
“Like all Duterte threats, I think it has to be taken seriously, but perhaps not literally,” Center for Strategic and International Studies analyst Gregory Poling said, surmising the American diplomats are emphasizing “that the Philippines will be given the same level of access as anybody else, but the U.S. government does not have the power to strongarm a private company into giving out vaccines.”
Duterte took a move to terminate the Visiting Forces Agreement early last year during a dispute over a visa for one of his local allies, but he has since suspended his move to jettison the pact — a softening attributable to the provision of the visa. The coronavirus pandemic spurred a fresh fusillade against the deal, despite the unease that Philippine military leaders feel regarding Chinese aggression.
“No vaccine, no stay here,” Duterte said in a post-Christmas speech, according to local media. “If America wants to help — deliver. Stop talking. What we need is the vaccine, not your verbose speeches.”
The agreement figures prominently in the U.S.-Philippine alliance as well as Pentagon plans to counter China’s growing military power in the region. Chinese forces have built artificial islands in the South China Sea, claiming sovereignty over vast waterways without regard for Philippine claims. The United States is required by a Mutual Defense Treaty to defend the Philippines — a bond that American strategists value in part because the same measures that protect the Philippines could also deter Chinese threats against other American bases and allies in the region.
“If U.S.-China competition is what defines the century, the South China Sea and, more broadly, China’s efforts to rewrite the rules of the international system within Asia, are a key part of that,” Poling said. “You cannot effectively meet that challenge without the Philippines, [both because of] its geography [and] by virtue of the fact that it is your oldest treaty ally in Asia, and so, a huge amount of your credibility is wrapped up in it. You need the Philippines.”
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo responded to Duterte’s threat with the reminder that “the United States has provided more than $19.3 million (Php 926.6 million) in vital assistance to the Philippines, more than to any country in Southeast Asia” since the pandemic began.
“Throughout the vaccine development process, the United States has facilitated communication between U.S. vaccine companies and Philippine government officials to facilitate vaccine access for the Filipino people,” a State Department spokesperson told the Washington Examiner. “The United States encourages the Philippine government to work with these companies to place orders.”
Philippine Foreign Secretary Theodore Locsin acknowledged last month that Pompeo helped Manila land a deal for 10 million Pfizer vaccines, “but somebody dropped the ball” before the agreement was finalized. That background fueled domestic irritation at Duterte’s attempt at “blackmailing” the U.S., as a lawmaker put it.
“Such a pronouncement from the president is at the very least, unfortunate,” Sen. Panfilo Lacson said last week. “I think there could be a more diplomatic or at least a better way of asking a longtime ally to help us avail of the vaccines for our people without sounding like we are blackmailing our way into it.”
Such a split has existed in Manila for decades, Poling said, emphasizing that defense leaders “who really are about national security” value such deals. “You have to incentivize other domestic players,” he said. “Duterte is using the VFA. And people around Duterte, who don’t really care about the alliance or national security, are very cynically using the VFA and using the alliance to get other things.”
State Department officials took Duterte’s threats in stride, noting that he “suspended” his move to terminate the deal in November.
“The Visiting Forces Agreement is a vital part of the U.S.-Philippines alliance, and we are in close, constructive dialogue with our Philippine partners on addressing the implementation issues for both parties,” the spokesperson said. “Our alliance has stood for seven decades and served both nations well; we are confident it will remain strong long into the future.”
The agreement won’t be on a firm foundation at least until the “anti-American” Duterte’s term expires, according to Poling.
“The alliance is never going to be on an entirely stable footing while Duterte is in office, but he’s only going to be in office until mid-2022,” the CSIS analyst said. “You need to rebuild that trust in a new administration in the Philippines.”
