Following the first Democratic presidential primary debates, lower-tier presidential candidates face growing pressure to drop out of the race to make way for high-profile candidates fighting for the chance to confront President Trump in 2020.
“After last week, I hope a whole lot of these folks will decide sooner rather than later to step aside,” Democratic strategist Jim Manley told the Washington Examiner. “It’s just a vanity project.”
The crowded field of more than 20 presidential hopefuls has become an object of ridicule and exasperation. More than half of the candidates garnered 1% support or less in a CNN poll of likely Democratic voters released Monday. That includes former HHS Secretary Julián Castro, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, entrepreneur Andrew Yang, former Maryland Rep. Jon Delaney, New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, former Colorado Gov. John Hicknelooper, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, and California Rep. Eric Swalwell.
HBO host Bill Maher on Friday listed 10 candidates who need to “get the f— out” of the race. TBS host Samantha Bee offered to bring candidates on her show to announce the end of their campaigns, singling out Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard in a promotional video on Sunday.
Manley said that candidates from states with vulnerable Republican senators should run for Senate instead. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has tried to recruit long-shot candidates such as Hickenlooper and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock to run for Senate rather than president to no avail.
“The Democratic Party is an entity, but it can’t tell its members what to do,” Bob Shrum, director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California and veteran Democratic strategist, told the Washington Examiner.
Shrum thinks that President Trump’s perceived vulnerability is the largest motivating factor for White House hopefuls to enter the race, but acknowledged there’s a joke that most senators look in the mirror in the morning and think, “Maybe I could be president.” Others could look at the field and think, “Why not me?” After all, a mayor of a medium-sized city — Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana — is in the top tier of candidates.
As the race drags on, campaigns will naturally fall by the wayside, said Shrum, a veteran of Democratic presidential politics.
“Presidential primary candidacies don’t end, they just run out of money,” Shrum said. “If they get to Iowa, and they don’t do well or decently in those first primaries, their money will dry up and they’ll be forced to drop out.”
The Democratic National Committee’s debate process will help whittle down the field, Shrum added. “I suspect you’ll see that some of the people who made it last time won’t make it next time.”
Candidates had to meet a threshold of 65,000 individual donors or 1% support in three approved polls to qualify for the first and second round of debates in June and July, but the threshold is much higher for debates in September, when candidates must secure 130,000 donors plus 2% support in four qualifying polls. Without publicity from the debates, candidates have a slim-to-zero chance of building grassroots support and fundraising dollars necessary to secure the party’s nomination.
The debate fundraising thresholds, though, could also encourage candidates to stay in the race longer than they should. “Folks are so successful with small-donor fundraising, I’m concerned that that’s going to suggest to some of these folks that they can continue for the next couple months,” Manley said. Some candidates pay digital firms $25, $50, or $75 to acquire a single new $1 donor.
A combination of poor fundraising, lack of crowds, and inability to dominate a policy discussion should indicate to candidates that it’s time to step back, Manley said.
“If they’re not in the debates, they should cease operations,” Shrum said. “Anyone’s entitled to hang around, but they’re not going to do well, they’re not going to do much of anything if they’re not in the debates.”
