Primary races to watch

The Trump administration used to be relatively diplomatic with Manchin, hoping for his vote on key legislation. The political website FiveThirtyEight rates him as voting with the president more than 60 percent of the time. But after he bucked them on Obamacare and tax reform, the White House stopped holding back.

“You’re going to have a chance to get a senator that’s going to vote our program. That’s going to help you in so many ways,” Trump said in a visit to West Virginia while flanked by two of the Republicans vying for the chance to run against Manchin in the fall — Evan Jenkins, a popular congressman, and Patrick Morrisey, the state’s attorney general.

Missing from the dais was a third candidate, businessman Don Blankenship. Blankenship served a year in prison after an explosion in one of his former company’s mines killed 29 people. Sen. Cory Gardner, R-Colo., chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, joked to reporters about whether Blankenship would be able to leave his house without wearing an ankle bracelet.

In a debate the week before the primary, Blankenship defended calling Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s father-in-law a “Chinaperson.” McConnell’s wife is Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao, a Trump Cabinet official who also served under George W. Bush. “He has conflicts of interest with China,” Blankenship said of the Kentucky Republican. “His family is very powerful in China and very powerful in the United States.”

Blankenship has also termed McConnell “Cocaine Mitch.” But the polls suggest he can’t be counted out in the May 8 primary. He is running as a victim of former President Barack Obama’s regulatory overreach. Donald Trump Jr. has expressly urged his defeat.

West Virginia is one of a few races where the primary may decide whether there is a competitive general election contest at all. And it’s one of 11 states that are holding a primary contest this month. With the right nominee, West Virginia stands as one of the GOP’s best pickup opportunities in an otherwise daunting election year. But if Blankenship is the nominee, Republicans fear the seat is a sure loss. (Gardner said in a meeting with the Washington Examiner that he expected the party would compete in West Virginia regardless.) The primary has been bruising even without Blankenship, as Morrissey sent Jenkins a “cease and desist” letter over a “defamatory” campaign ad.

Blue wave vs. Trump

Republicans entered this year hoping the crowded Democratic primaries would fracture the opposition, as the Hillary Clinton versus Bernie Sanders dynamic repeated itself across the country. They were also relieved by Steve Bannon’s fall from grace with the president, effectively depriving the former White House chief strategist of the resources he needed to go through with his plan to support primary challengers against nearly every sitting Republican senator. Bannon’s activity in last year’s Alabama Senate race was widely blamed for the GOP’s loss of a seat there for the first time since the 1990s.

So far, it hasn’t really played out that way. Yes, the Democrats have huge primary fields in the suburban congressional districts where they plan to slowly eat away at the Republican House majority until Nancy Pelosi — or some other member of their party yet to be determined — wields the speaker’s gavel. In many cases, ideological and strategic differences loom large in these primaries.

The size of the primary fields seems to just be another sign of Democratic enthusiasm in the midterm elections, however. Anti-Trump vigor has thus far been sufficient to unify the party. “It’s not that there isn’t sort of an ideological fight going on, a status quo versus insurgent thing,” said Democratic strategist Joe Trippi. “But it’s just not to the level where there are many races where we’re very worried about it.”

Meanwhile, Republicans have insurgent candidates seemingly emulating Trump by entering primaries and relying on the volatility of the electorate to upset the party establishment’s carefully laid plans. With an unusually high amount of GOP retirements, a number of Republican-held districts carried by Clinton that is almost equal to what Democrats would need to seize the majority and Republicans trailing in the generic ballot, the House majority looks precarious.

Yet with the Democrats defending seats in 10 states Trump won in 2016, including several where he remains popular now, Republicans have a solid chance to hold their Senate majority even if the blue wave comes for their colleagues in the lower chamber. But that’s if the primary process doesn’t endanger seats that should be safe.

Arizona

Some Republicans believe the retirement of Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., actually improved the party’s chances of retaining that seat if their preferred candidate, Rep. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., wins the Aug. 28 primary. But she faces former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, a Trump loyalist who received the president’s first pardon, and state Sen. Kelli Ward, a populist conservative firebrand in her own right, in a contest with huge implications for the general election.

“I think that people in Arizona believe that if anyone but Martha McSally wins the Republican nomination, that U.S. Senate seat is sure to go to [likely Democratic nominee Rep.] Kyrsten Sinema,” said Phoenix-based political consultant Stan Barnes, a former GOP state lawmaker. That’s one of the reasons it raised eyebrows when Vice President Mike Pence called out to Arpaio from the stage at a tax reform event in the state, calling the controversial lawman — who was convicted of contempt of court in a racial profiling case — a “tireless champion” of the “rule of law.”

Arpaio’s candidacy may actually end up benefiting McSally because he will split the anti-establishment vote with Ward. “The worst day in this campaign for Kelli Ward was when Jeff Flake retired,” Barnes said. “The second worst day was when Joe Arpaio got into the race.” Nevertheless, it could affect conservative enthusiasm in the fall or force McSally to take positions that will be more difficult to defend in the general.

Indiana

Some Republican primaries are essentially contests to see who can hug Trump the tightest. That has certainly been the case in Indiana, Pence’s home state, which is seeing a spirited primary for the right to challenge vulnerable Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly on May 8.

Rep. Todd Rokita, R-Ind., unveiled an ad saying only he is “tough enough” to stand with Trump against the incumbent, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, special counsel Robert Mueller and the “fake news media” and their “witch hunt.” Rokita dismissed opponents Rep. Luke Messer, R-Ind., as a “Never Trumper” who “supports amnesty for illegals” and state Rep. Mike Braun as a “Democrat” who “raised our taxes 45 times.” He also introduced a resolution calling on Mueller to provide evidence of collusion within 30 days or shut down his investigation.

Not to be outdone, Messer joined 17 other House Republicans in nominating Trump for the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for his diplomatic work on North Korea. “President Trump’s peace through strength policies are working and bringing peace to the Korean Peninsula,” they wrote. The Indiana GOP field is generally viewed as strong but there are worries the contentiousness of the primary will leave bruises on the eventual nominee.

Rokita has cast aspersions of Messer’s mental health, calling him “unhinged” and a “ticking time bomb.” Messer has accused Rokita of “spreading lies” about his voting record, attacking his wife and various other offenses. But, in all, Indiana is one of the states where Republicans see an opportunity to flip a Senate seat in their favor.

Ohio

The Republican primary to fill the seat being vacated by Rep. Pat Tiberi, R-Ohio, is also generating heat. Melanie Leneghan is running as an acolyte of Trump and House Freedom Caucus stalwart Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, in the May 8 primary.

“I guess you could say Melanie Leneghan will actually do what Republicans are supposed to do,” Jordan said in a pro-Leneghan ad by House Freedom Action. But other Republicans worry she will not be able to hold onto the college-educated suburbanites who usually vote for GOP candidates but are not enamored with Trump. Tiberi has always been a good fit with this constituency. Ohio Gov. John Kasich held the seat before him.

Tiberi is backing state Sen. Troy Balderson as his chosen successor. The Club for Growth, which frequently fights the party establishment to support fiscal conservatives, has attacked Balderson in ads run by its associated super PAC. Ten candidates in total are seeking the GOP nomination for a seat Democrats hope they can pick up in a repeat of the Pennsylvania 18th District special election. State legislator Kevin Bacon and first-time candidate Tim Kane are also considered factors in the race.

On the same day, Ohio Republicans will choose between Attorney General Mike DeWine, a longtime statewide officeholder, and Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor for the nomination to succeed Kasich. DeWine is expected to win but the race hasn’t always been Midwestern nice. “It’s only a race because it is Republican on Republican crime and the media likes that and likes to pump it up,” said Ohio-based Republican strategist Jai Chabria.

The Democratic gubernatorial primary also features some well-known candidates. The frontrunner is Richard Cordray, who most recently ran the Obama-created Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. He is facing off against a field that includes quirky former Rep. Dennis Kucinich, a national progressive favorite in his own right who has launched improbable political comebacks before.

California

Democrats aren’t without exciting races of their own. California has started holding nonpartisan “jungle primaries,” but Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., is facing a challenge from the Left in the form of Kevin de Leon on June 5. Feinstein is leading and she should at least be able to advance to the general election on June 5. A bigger Democratic concern is whether they have too many House candidates in some Republican-held districts, preventing some of their better candidates from making the November ballot.

Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, a former mayor of San Francisco, will also square off against former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa in the race to succeed retiring Gov. Jerry Brown. Newsom led in fundraising in April, but Villaraigosa is expected to have the money to compete.

Clinton vs. Sanders wings

Demographics loom large in Georgia’s May 22 Democratic “two Staceys” primary for governor. Stacey Abrams is running as an unapologetic liberal to become the first black governor of Georgia. She hopes to stimulate high turnout among African Americans and progressives. Her opponent is Stacey Evans, who is white and thinks centrists and even some Trump voters are the key to winning in November. Evans enjoys support from party leaders but got a frosty reception at Netroots Nation — a convention attended by the Democrats’ progressive branch.

Ill will still lingers among liberals who supported Sanders in the 2016 primaries and who saw the pro-Clinton bias of the Democratic National Committee and other party leaders as part of a broader institutional slant toward business-friendly centrist candidates. It still hurts the DNC’s fundraising, but only a few high-profile examples have occurred this year, and there has been backlash every time.

Liberal groups were apoplectic when House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, D-Md., was caught on tape urging a progressive candidate to drop out of a Colorado primary. “Steny Hoyer should resign or be removed from House Democratic leadership immediately,” Democracy for America Executive Director Charles Chamberlain said in a statement.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee dropped an opposition research document against liberal Laura Moser in the first round of the primary fight to take on Rep. John Culberson, R-Texas. Washington Democrats feared her published comments suggesting she disliked living in Texas would prevent them from flipping the seat. The party’s intervention instead seemed to help Moser, who advanced to the May 22 runoff.

Party involvement in primaries can have mixed results. McConnell successfully tamped down Tea Party rebellions in 2014 en route to winning a majority in the Senate, a feat that eluded Republicans after losing several winnable races in 2010 and 2012 with questionable nominees. His support for appointed incumbent Sen. Luther Strange, R-Ala., however, probably aided Roy Moore in a primary that ultimately had disastrous results for the party.

Trump was able to clear the primary field for Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nev., this year by getting would-be challenger Danny Tarkanian to shift to a House race (the impact on that district is less certain). His support for Strange over Moore fell on deaf ears.

“It’s hard for the parties to bigfoot in the primaries when the candidates are raising more money than the party committees,” Trippi said. That’s been especially true for Democrats, whose candidates have been hauling in money hand over fist.

Yet it is Republicans who will be eyeing their primary results more warily. “We might wake up in November and go, ‘Oh gosh, those five seats, if only,’ but right now I don’t sense some big problem,” Trippi said.