Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine posturing is presenting President Joe Biden with his biggest test yet as the commander in chief’s domestic legislative agenda remains in tatters.
But Biden has made any peacekeeping mission more difficult for himself as he considers deploying thousands of troops to NATO-allied countries ahead of a possible Russian incursion into Ukraine, with the option of sending more service members to Eastern Europe in the future if the security situation continues to deteriorate.
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Most lawmakers are their own worst enemies, according to Democratic strategist and Obama administration State Department alumnus Tom Cochran.
But for Cochran, a partner at public affairs firm 720 Strategies, Biden does not bear sole responsibility for the potential Russia-Ukraine clash.
“Unfortunately, competence and experience are ineffective when faced with a hyperpartisan Congress full of self-aggrandizing politicians,” he told the Washington Examiner.
“For Putin, this is about NATO and Europe creeping closer to his borders,” Cochran said. “So this is for NATO and Europe to address, with the U.S. being a part of the former.”
Ambassador Nathan Sales, a former acting undersecretary of state and currently a nonresident Atlantic Council senior fellow, agreed that a Russian incursion of Ukraine would be Putin’s “crime.” But Putin is responding to conditions to which Biden has contributed, according to Sales.
“He saw weakness from the United States in our withdrawal from Afghanistan,” he said. “He senses weakness now among our NATO allies, who are downplaying the possibility of meaningful sanctions and are talking about opening up economic and diplomatic dialogues.”
“When Putin sees Western European leaders talking like that, he thinks he can play divide and conquer,” Sales added. “It’s up to Western Europeans, and it’s up to the White House not to create an environment that invites that kind of bad behavior.”
The United States and its allies should be on the offensive rather than defensive, according to Sales. Biden should impose political and economic consequences on Russian aggression immediately instead of countering Russia “with one hand tied behind our back,” he contended.
“The way to avoid conflict is to demonstrate that we have more power and influence on our side, and we’re prepared to use tools available to us,” he said. “So why not sanction a Russian bank? Why not remove a Russian bank’s ability to transact business in dollars? Why not cut a Russian bank off from [the SWIFT global banking network]? Why not name a handful of oligarchs who are going to be sanctioned in the event of an invasion?”
Concerns about Biden’s leadership at crucial moments were underscored last week when he admitted during a press conference that there may be disagreement among allies about how to react if some of the roughly 100,000 mobilized Russian troops cross the 1,200-mile-long shared Ukraine border. The White House clarified the comments within an hour, but they had already undermined Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s in-person reassurances to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Biden’s struggles abroad are unfolding against the backdrop of his failure to broker a deal among Democrats regarding his sprawling $2 trillion social welfare and climate spending bill, as well as his efforts to expand voter access to the ballot box. Similarly, it is occurring as China mirrors the Russia-Ukraine dynamic against Taiwan, the Chinese Communist Party and the Kremlin seemingly seeking a redefinition of international norms.
Together, Biden’s lack of success is further eroding his reputation for competence and experience as he is forced to stand on his own merits and out of the shadow of his predecessor, former President Donald Trump.
Once a polling strength, Biden’s foreign policy job approval no longer compensates for his problem areas, including the economy, the pandemic, and immigration. On average, Biden’s foreign policy job approval is net negative 15 percentage points, according to RealClearPolitics. That is lower than his average overall job approval, which is net negative 13 points.
Biden’s frustration with his Russia-Ukraine news media coverage became evident last week when he was heard complaining about a reporter who needled him on why he was waiting for Putin “to make the first move.”
“What a stupid question,” he said.
Blinken’s meetings last week with Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, minimized as a platform for a breakthrough given the Kremlin’s list of demands, preceded Biden telling three Baltic NATO members that they could send U.S. weapons to Ukraine. Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia have since supplemented Ukraine’s arsenal with Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger air-defense systems.
CIA Director William Burns had been dispatched to the region prior to Blinken.
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The U.S. will start evacuating nonessential embassy staff and other diplomatic families from Kyiv this week, just as Biden put 8,500 troops on high alert.
