The caravan of several thousand Hondurans that’s making its way through Mexico to the U.S. border is just the thing for Republicans looking to rile up their base and keep Democrats from winning back the House.
“It’s manna from heaven,” Sam Nunberg, a former Trump campaign aide, said of the caravan and its timing so close to the Nov. 6 midterm elections. “Donald Trump equals American patriotism and strength, strong military, strong borders, and law and order. This caravan reinforces this.”
Thousands of migrants have been walking from Honduras to the southern border, garnering extensive media coverage and the attention of the president along the way. Trump used the slow-rolling event Monday morning to blame Democrats for the lawlessness seen on the U.S.-Mexico border.
“Every time you see a Caravan, or people illegally coming, or attempting to come, into our Country illegal, think of and blame the Democrats for not giving us the votes to change our pathetic Immigration Laws! Remember the Midterms!” the president tweeted.
The president also alleged during a rally in Montana last week the Democratic Party supports the caravan of migrants because they “figure everybody coming in is going to vote Democrat.”
Republicans are expected to narrowly hold onto the Senate but lose the House to Democrats after they pick up 25 to 35 seats or even more. But for Republicans, the caravan is an imminent threat they can point to as a reason to keep them around.
“Base voters are really fired up about illegal immigration, so the more Trump is talking about it, the better it is overall,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist. “We don’t know if it’ll be enough, but we know the president has the biggest megaphone, and if anyone is going to make the message, he’s going to be the best person to deliver it in a time-sensitive way.”
The caravan, O’Connell said, has given Republicans the “pictures and events needed” to harness the party’s message on immigration.
At rallies he’s hosted to boost support for Republicans facing tough races, the president has continued to deliver his message that Democratic leaders don’t have the guts to tackle immigration.
Immigration, Nunberg said, has become a “threshold issue” synonymous with the president, and one that is playing out during an election that is a “referendum on Trump.”
“President Trump is 100 percent right [to emphasize immigration],” he said. “We have to mobilize our base.”
But while the president has urged Republicans to make immigration a key issue for the midterm elections, GOP candidates have been focusing on other issues, including its tax cuts and the economy.
Less than 11 percent of ads in Senate, House, and governor races as of last week were anti-immigration, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing Kantar Media/CMAG.
Republican pollster David Winston said that while immigration tends to be a base issue for Republicans and Democrats when it comes to engaging their core voters, both parties will need to win over independents if they want to claim victory come November.
And the top issue for those voters, he said, is jobs and the economy. A new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll on Monday said jobs and the economy combined are the most important issue, followed by healthcare and changing the system in Washington. Immigration was tied for fourth place along with broader issues that affect the middle class.
Still, Winston said the migrant caravan has made immigration a topic that would be difficult for any president to avoid.
“The caravan is driving the conversation,” he said. “The level of coverage has been significant, and it’s a major news story that a president, whether it’s him or anybody would have to address.”
