WARSAW — Russian President Vladimir Putin is poised to open a new front in the war in Ukraine to put additional strain on Ukrainian defenders and perhaps cut their supply lines with Western allies, European officials fear.
The mobilization of about 30,000 troops into Belarus under the guise of joint military exercises allowed Russian forces to launch a direct assault against Kyiv in conjunction with two other lines of attack from eastern Ukraine, which borders Russia. That staging ground also allows them to “keep this pressure on the western Ukraine and the possibility to cut off humanitarian deliveries to Ukraine,” a senior European official said, especially if Putin can induce Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to order his forces into the fight.
Ukrainian officials suspect that such a plan is in motion “in the Volyn direction,” the northwestern Ukrainian province where the borders of Ukraine, Poland, and Belarus meet.
“In the Volyn direction, there is a high probability of provocations by the special services of the Russian Federation at Belarusian facilities in order to involve the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus in a military operation against Ukraine,” the Ukrainian defense ministry said in a late Saturday update.
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Belarusian Ambassador Ihar Sokol’s sudden withdrawal from Ukraine on March 18 strikes multiple European officials and Belarusian dissidents as an ominous portent.
“Certainly, them leaving right now raises all kinds of possibilities,” a second senior European official told the Washington Examiner. “So, it is very well possible that their embassy or diplomats moving out may mean that they are close to joining the war overtly on the side of Russia, among other things.”
A direct Belarusian assault on Ukraine would worsen the fracture between the two countries. Putin has characterized Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus as “a triune people” — a statement that suggests his desire to bring both countries under Moscow’s control, but also one that reflects real societal and cultural links between the countries.
The Belarusian ambassador’s departure featured a tense exchange with a Ukrainian border security officer. A video of the confrontation showed the border guard urging the departing envoy to bring a bag of money — “these 30 pieces of silver” — back to the Belarusian border authorities.
The Belarusian ambassador, catching the allusion to the biblical story of Judas, the disciple who took that sum as payment to betray Jesus Christ, refused the money. “We despise you,” the guard spat, according to a Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty translation of the conversation.
That Ukrainian anger has simmered since Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko allowed Russian forces to attack Kyiv from his facilities. Yet Lukashenko has avoided participating directly in the conflict, but he has claimed that “Americans and their partners” are trying to “provoke” Belarus into joining the attack.
“If only Ukraine continues escalation against Belarus, we will respond,” Lukashenko said Thursday. “This is why if they provoke us constantly, we will be forced to respond.”
Lukashenko claimed that Ukrainian forces have fired two missiles into Belarus and violated Belarusian airspace on several occasions. He aired those allegations one day before the Belarusian ambassador exited Ukraine.
“This is my worry — what if, at the end of the day, Lukashenko will be forced also to declare war against Ukraine?” a third senior European official said.
Senior European officials from countries that support Ukraine scoffed at the idea that Ukrainian forces would be trying to draw Belarus to attack them.
“There would be no tactical or strategic rationale to do it,” the second senior European official said. “Let alone the fact that they are just so preoccupied with resisting the Russians. It would be, even, madness to think of them using their forces and resources to try to even expand this conflict.”
Lukashenko is perceived by European officials and dissidents as wanting to avoid sending Belarusian troops into the conflict.
“For now, Lukashenko tries to play the role of a good policeman, even though he is fully an accomplice in the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Hanna Liubakova, a media advisor to Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, told the Washington Examiner. “If Putin loses, Lukashenko could safely say that he endured the pressure the Kremlin put on him.”
The third senior European official surmised that Lukashenko might fear following Russia into a defeat.
“And you know, why he doesn’t want to enter the way? I think it’s a very simple reason: What if Russia loses? I think this is his first consideration,” the official said, before surmising that Lukashenko’s latest appearance amounts to an attempt to offer rhetorical support in lieu of a direct military offensive. “I believe the more Lukashenko talks about the war, the less he wants to engage … the less he wants to really fight. I think he doesn’t want to enter the war on behalf of Russia.”
Lukashenko might not have a choice. “It is doubtful that Lukashenko is still able to make such decisions and resist the deployment of Belarusian troops in Ukraine,” Liubakova told the Washington Examiner. “It seems that it has not happened yet only because Putin did not press enough.”
That pressure could be building, given Russia’s apparent desire to find more reserve forces to throw into the fight. Putin has spoken publicly about accepting foreign volunteers, as the Russian campaign has struggled more than Moscow appeared to expect. British officials say that Russia’s battlefield losses have spurred Moscow to recruit mercenaries and Syrian fighters to reinforce the Russian regulars.
“The Russians need bodies. They’ve already had a few thousand Chechens and now they’re talking about flying in Syrians,” French defense analyst Francois Heisbourg told the Financial Times. “For the urban combat phase in particular you really need a lot of manpower and that’s exactly what the Russians don’t currently have. So the notion of filling in with Belarusians … would actually make a lot of sense.”
The Belarusian military is not well-respected as a fighting force, and its effectiveness might be diminished by low morale and opposition to the war. “For now, it might be clear to both Lukashenko and Putin that the deployment of [Belarusian] troops would mean discontent among the army, elites, and people,” she said.
With that in mind, she noted, it may be that the Belarusian ambassador withdrew in order to avoid getting caught in a more ruinous Russian attack. “Judging by what Putin says, he has not yet abandoned his plans to seize Ukraine, even though the death toll is rising, cities are turning into ruins,” Liubakova said.
Still, even a low-quality Belarusian intervention would force Ukrainian fighters to “spend more people and ammunition in areas” where they had not previously faced an attack, the second senior European official said, and alter the political character of the war for Ukraine and the NATO allies seeking to aid Ukraine without getting involved directly in the conflict.
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“Their addition to the battlefield won’t bring any strategic change in terms of military capabilities, but of course politically, that would be a huge change … in terms of having another country join the war against its neighbor,” the second official said. “And, through that, also effectively making the current contact point between NATO and Belarus also the line between NATO and a country in war.”
