President Trump has been trying to move on from the coronavirus to the economic recovery, but the electorate remains deeply concerned about the pandemic, especially as some states experience a resurgence of the virus.
This difference in priorities may explain why Trump appears to be falling further behind Democratic challenger Joe Biden nationally and in the battleground states. A plurality of voters picked the coronavirus as their top issue, according to a Fox News poll, beating the economy 29% to 15%.
An ABC News/Washington Post poll that showed Trump trailing Biden by 15 points found the biggest drop in the president’s support came in states that have averaged 30 coronavirus cases a day per 100,000 residents, including key battlegrounds Florida, Texas, Arizona, and Georgia. The same poll found Trump’s approval rating on managing the outbreak was down 28 points since March and a key predictor of who people plan to vote for in November. According to the poll, 93% of voters who approve of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus say they will pull the lever for him, while 89% of those who do not are supporting Biden. Biden is favored over Trump on the issue by 20 points.
The Trump administration’s plans to reopen the schools on time in the fall have faced similar headwinds. A Politico/Morning Consult poll found that 54% were very or somewhat uncomfortable with reopening K-12 schools, and 58% had similar concerns about reopening day care. They were split 48% comfortable to 43% uncomfortable on reopening colleges and universities.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in mid-July concluded that just 26% of U.S. adults believed it was safe to return to school, compared to 55% who did not and 19% who were not sure.
Trump made some moves on Monday to try to get ahead of this trend. He announced the return of daily coronavirus briefings, effective Tuesday evening. He tweeted an image of himself wearing a protective face mask. “We are United in our effort to defeat the Invisible China Virus, and many people say that it is Patriotic to wear a face mask when you can’t socially distance,” he wrote. “There is nobody more Patriotic than me, your favorite President!”
But Trump’s public clashes with medical advisers such as Anthony Fauci, his complaints about new funding for coronavirus testing, the increase in cases in places such as Florida, and a rising death toll have sapped public confidence in his pandemic response. Trump has staked his reelection on reopening, and while the early economic results were encouraging, it has yet to rebound to his political benefit as the virus has spread.
Reopening continues to be a major part of the GOP campaign pitch. “The Democrats are saying, ‘We have to shut down our country forever,’” said Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel on Fox News.
Trump supporters protested the lockdowns, and some fear their partial return, particularly in Democratic states, is intended to undermine his reelection bid. But some of these steps are being taken by Republican governors in typically red states, and the concern among voters seems genuine.
“Trump has an uncanny ability to dictate to his base what their level of concern should be,” said Republican strategist Christian Ferry. “The problem is that his base was barely large enough to win in 2016 against an unfavorably viewed Democrat, and today, it is shrinking against Joe Biden, who does not carry the same negatives as Hillary Clinton.”
Throughout the pandemic, Trump has pushed for a return to normal as quickly as possible, with people getting back to work, worship, restaurants, school, and professional sports. “‘Make America normal again’ could be a great campaign theme for him,” said a second Republican strategist. This, combined with persistent optimism about the trajectory of the virus, has resonated with the base but led to concerns from most other voters that he wasn’t taking the numbers of cases and deaths seriously enough.
The White House continues to tout Trump’s response.
“His historic COVID response speaks for itself with delivering on ventilators and testing, leading the world in the amount of testing we’ve provided; therapeutics; the 13 vaccine candidates — the Moderna example that I pointed out to you,” White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany told reporters last week. “This president’s response has been historic, and we believe his support in this country reflects that.”
