Republican insiders say the wave of civil unrest roiling American cities could boost President Trump in his reelection bid against presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden if he can meet the moment with consistent leadership that is measured and reassuring. They doubt he can.
In interviews Monday, more than a half-dozen veteran Republican strategists told the Washington Examiner that the bloody, destructive riots that erupted from coast to coast over the weekend could push voters into Trump’s arms. He has cultivated a law-and-order image since the earliest days of his first campaign, and suburban voters who fled the GOP because of a deep dissatisfaction with the president’s provocative style could reconsider amid fresh concerns about domestic security.
But in responding to the social conflagration primarily with a staccato of politically charged tweets, while picking fights with Democratic governors and mayors on the front lines of the mayhem, Republicans fear Trump has reinforced the long-held notion among persuadable voters in the suburbs that he is part of the problem. In so doing, they say, the president is on the verge of squandering a major opportunity to outflank Biden on a key issue.
“If you look at the suburban coalition, they’re not exactly fond of the cities getting torched. The problem, of course, is Trump,” said a Republican lobbyist, who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly about the president.
Although Trump discussed the crisis Saturday while traveling in Florida, he did not formally discuss the matter until Monday evening. In a speech to the nation from the Rose Garden, the president vowed overwhelming federal action to crack down on the rioters and end the violence while promising justice for George Floyd, whose death at the hands of a Minneapolis police officer sparked the nationwide protests.
“I am your president of law and order and an ally of all peaceful protesters,” Trump said.
Last week, thousands of demonstrators marched in communities across the country to protest the killing of Floyd, who was black, by Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin, who is white and has been charged with third-degree murder. The protests turned violent, with criminal agitators using anguish over Floyd’s death to instigate clashes with law enforcement, destroy property, and steal from retail stores that have been shut down for months because of the coronavirus pandemic.
Biden and other top Democrats, including former President Barack Obama, have unequivocally condemned the riots and called for an end to illegal activity, lamenting that the lawbreakers are obscuring what happened to Floyd. But Democrats and their voting coalition are more apt than Republicans to sympathize with the apparent rage driving the protests and view the violence as an understandable reaction to what they believe has been decades of systemic racism.
Republicans argue this is going to put pressure on Biden to downplay criticism of the rioters, rankling suburban voters whose anxiety is on the rise as they watch this threat to public safety play out on television. Republicans say the former vice president’s proposal to abolish cash bail and mandatory minimum sentences could be a problem if the unrest causes voters to place a higher priority on law and order.
“Biden, who used to be in the mainstream or better on crime issues, has gotten himself stuck off to the left,” said Charlie Black, a GOP lobbyist who has advised presidential candidates.
Trump, who in late 2018 signed a bipartisan criminal justice reform bill, was quick to condemn Floyd’s killing and immediately ordered the Justice Department to investigate. The president has made improving his support among black people a top goal of his 2020 campaign.
No matter, say Republican insiders, Trump undermined any goodwill all of this might have purchased, with minorities and suburban white people, with highly provocative and political tweets. In particular, those tweets are reminding suburban voters what they do not like about the president and fortifying their belief that he is whipping societal divisions.
In one tweet, Trump said: “These THUGS are dishonoring the memory of George Floyd, and I won’t let that happen. Just spoke to [Minnesota] Governor Tim Walz and told him that the Military is with him all the way. Any difficulty and we will assume control but, when the looting starts, the shooting starts. Thank you!” The problem was that the phrase “when the looting starts the shooting starts” carries racial connotations from the civil rights era of the 1960s.
Trump later walked back the tweet, but it was followed by a string of similarly controversial Twitter posts. Compounding the political challenge Trump is creating for himself on social media is that, until Monday, his tweets did not have the benefit of being counterbalanced by a speech to the nation that might calm tensions and provide leadership that is publicly visible.
Also Monday, the president in a conference call with governors attacked many of the same Democratic chief executives who, at the moment, have higher approval ratings in their states for their management of the coronavirus than does Trump, who is now navigating twin crises five months before Election Day.
“Folks want to be safe and protected, they want to feel that the national leaders understand the issues and are having a positive influence,” said David Carney, a Republican strategist in New Hampshire. “Law and order are needed, but the tone is what will drive the narrative on the political consequences.”
