When President Trump arrives in New Hampshire on Saturday, all eyes will be on the size of the crowd that assembles for his rally. Held in an airy hangar at Portsmouth International Airport, without any hyperbolic advance claims of attendance, it shows how his campaign is adjusting to the realities of the coronavirus after the debacle at Tulsa.
And in the same way, his choice of destination, a state with a mere four Electoral College votes that he lost narrowly in 2016, reflects a new calculus that the Granite State could be a crucial part of a shrinking electoral map.
Officially, supporters say the state was always earmarked for a full-court press. Unofficially, some concede that trouble in the Rust Belt, where 2016 gains such as Pennsylvania and Michigan are in danger of slipping away, makes New Hampshire pivotal to picking up the 270 electoral college votes needed for victory.
“As the polling in the battleground states is panning out, I think they are developing a new strategy based on the fact they can’t count on some of those Rust Belt states in 2020,” said a senior Republican strategist.
Trump lost the state by a mere 2,736 votes in 2016. This time, the campaign has poured resources into New Hampshire to turn it around.
Chris Ager, the Republican National Committee representative for New Hampshire, said the Trump Victory Fund had a paid staff of almost 30 people and thousands more volunteers.
“Our mantra is we have to act as if it’s a tie in the rest of the country, and we’re going to make a difference,” he said.
“That’s how we’re approaching this. And that very well could happen.”
This week, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report spelled out the challenge facing Trump as it updated its election forecasts. It moved the battleground states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania from “toss-up” status to “lean Democrat,” making presumptive nominee Joe Biden on course for 279 electoral college votes, with 71 in the balance, and 188 in Trump’s column.
That has strategists looking at alternative routes to 270 than the 2016 path through Democrats’ supposed “blue wall.” Losing Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin could be balanced by picking up New Hampshire plus one of the Sun Belt states of Nevada or New Mexico, runs the theory.
“That could be our best chance right now,” said a senior Trump adviser.
However, Nick Trainer, director of delegates and party organization for the campaign, said the map shifted every cycle.
“There’s plenty of different ways to get to 270,” he said. “And I think what’s important is the support the president has built up, and the resources that he’s able to develop has allowed us to widen the map beyond where we were in 2016.”
Officials say New Hampshire has been moving toward the Republican column since John McCain lost by 10% in 2008. In addition, they think Biden’s campaign will struggle for traction in a state where recent polls found 85% of respondents rated their local police department as “professional,” despite national protests, and recorded widespread support for lifting coronavirus restrictions early.
“New Hampshire, we feel very strongly, is a state that we could have and should have won in 2016,” said Trainer. “And the president’s record of accomplishments over three and a half years, coupled with a political environment in a state that we only lost by a few thousand votes, are great reasons for us to head to New Hampshire on Saturday.”
Trump has been a frequent visitor. The state gave him his first primary victory in 2016, earning it a special place in his heart, say insiders.
He returned to Manchester for a rally last year and again in February, with an event to draw attention away from the Democratic primary.
Lauren Zelt, an adviser to the New Hampshire GOP in 2014, said a high-profile visit made sense.
“I think what you are seeing with New Hampshire is a smaller state, with a very engaged electorate, and the likelihood of voters appreciating a visit, especially at a time like this, is high,” she said.
The rally location comes with specific benefits, she added. It is in Rockingham County, a Republican area, where a high turnout and strong performance will be crucial to winning New Hampshire.
And ultimately, the airport rally could serve as the model for future events.
Jason Miller, a senior campaign adviser, said: “We are going to put him in front of as many people as possible and expand the map. The difference between President Trump and Joe Biden is Joe Biden seems to be confined to wherever he can drive to in a couple of hours from his basement in Wilmington, while President Trump is going to campaign across the country.”
