The political fates of Iowa Republican Sen. Joni Ernst and President Trump are intertwined, potentially costing their party Senate control or the White House or both.
Ernst was swept into office on the crest of the 2014 Republican election wave. But with public opinion turning against Trump, even in Iowa, the first-term senator is in trouble too.
With five days until her Tuesday election, Ernst has regained her polling footing after a month of surveys giving Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield a steady edge. The real estate executive still leads by an average of 1.8 percentage points, according to RealClearPolitics, but she doesn’t consistently reach that all-important 50% support threshold.
Iowa Democratic strategist Jeff Link said Ernst was “in a tight spot, “not surprisingly,” since she “tied herself to Trump.”
“Strangely, she’s not as popular with Iowa Republicans as Trump, and that’s why she has been trailing Greenfield a little,” he said of the Senate GOP conference vice chair.
University of Iowa political science professor Timothy Hagle thought Ernst could “run ahead of Trump,” given the state’s history of ticket-splitting. Hagle cited the 2018 midterm elections, in which a mixture of Republicans and Democrats experienced statewide success.
Another trend in Ernst’s favor is the benefit of incumbency. Six years ago, she replaced 30-year Iowa Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin, for instance, by 8 points over her Democratic rival, then-Iowa Rep. Bruce Braley.
“Iowa likes its incumbents,” Hagle said. “Then again, this is her first reelection campaign, and incumbents tend to be most vulnerable the first time.”
The professor added, “Aside from that, one reason why Ernst may be struggling is the huge amount of money that has been poured into the campaign by pro-Greenfield groups. Democrats saw Iowa’s Senate race as a possible pickup and have put on a full-court press here.”
The Iowa Senate race is the second-most expensive one this cycle. The campaigns and outside organizations have spent $217 million on advertising alone, second only to the North Carolina contest.
Hagle said the ads portrayed Ernst as having “gone Washington” and not working for Iowans.
“That messaging seems more aimed at the Democrats’ base, and I’m not sure it will work on independents, but the sheer volume of the money spent seems to have had an effect,” he told the Washington Examiner.
For Drake University political science professor Dennis Goldford, those attacks countered Ernst’s inaugural Senate campaign.
The former Iowa state senator and retired Army National Guard lieutenant colonel’s maiden bid leaned heavily into her “good old Iowa country girl with good rural values” image with her viral pig “make ’em squeal” ad in contrast to her opponent, who “came across as a big city slicker lawyer,” Goldford said. He also noted that 2014 was “a big Republican year nationwide.”
This time around, Greenfield, a disciplined messenger, has been competing for the same votes, pitching herself as “a farm kid.”
Ernst’s up against low approval ratings as well. Earlier this year, Morning Consult named her the country’s third-least popular senator behind Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins.
“On the one hand, she’ll savage Democrats, then talk about working in a bipartisan manner. So, she’s trying to have it both ways,” Goldford said.
And with Biden ahead of Trump on average by a single point in the White House race, Ernst’s biggest stumble came last week during her third and final debate.
During that debate, Ernst, a Senate Agriculture Committee member, couldn’t remember the break-even price for soybeans. Iowa is the country’s second-largest producer of the legume, Goldford said.
“If she wins this time, she’ll probably be there for a while. But she’s got a tough uphill battle,” Goldford continued.
Democrats need to gain three to four seats in the Senate for a majority, depending on how Biden performs at the presidential level.
Ernst’s Senate race is rated a toss-up by election prognosticator Cook Political Report, along with Collins. They are joined on the list by Republican Sens. Steve Daines of Montana, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, as well as Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, both of Georgia.
Alabama Democratic Sen. Doug Jones is forecast to lose his seat to Republican former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville. GOP Sens. Martha McSally of Arizona and Cory Gardner of Colorado are similarly predicted to forfeit their seats to Democratic ex-astronaut Mark Kelly and two-term Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, respectively.
