The U.S. power sector has already slashed more emissions than what would have been required by the Obama administration’s climate mandate.
Between 2005 and 2020, the power sector has reduced emissions by 38% as utilities have retired old coal-fired plants and switched to cleaner-burning natural gas and, increasingly, wind and solar energy, according to a report released Thursday by the Environmental Integrity Project based on the Environmental Protection Agency’s latest emissions data.
That means the power sector blew past the goal set by the Obama administration’s centerpiece climate regulation, the Clean Power Plan, which would have required utilities to cut emissions 32% below 2005 levels by 2030.
“The data suggest that President Biden’s ambitious plan to obtain all U.S. electricity from carbon-free sources by 2035 may not be so unrealistic after all,” the report says.
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The power sector has shifted dramatically in the past decade, largely through market forces as the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan never truly took effect.
The Environmental Integrity Project notes that carbon emissions from power plants fell more rapidly during the Trump administration, despite former President Donald Trump’s attempts to bolster fossil fuels. Power sector emissions fell 11% between 2016 and 2019, the report notes.
Nonetheless, other sectors of the economy, such as transportation and heavy industry, haven’t seen the same emissions declines, meaning the United States is still off track to meet the economy-wide target former President Barack Obama set under the Paris climate agreement to cut overall emissions 26% to 28% by 2025.
President Biden is expected to set an even stricter emissions target as part of his administration’s return to the Paris deal, attempting to put the U.S. on track to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
Biden will also face a challenge in getting the power sector to zero emissions, as he has promised to do by 2035. That goal brings his administration in direct conflict with natural gas, the resource that has largely driven the power sector’s emissions decline to date.
In 2020, natural gas made up 41% of U.S. power generation, compared to 24% in 2010, according to the Environmental Integrity Project report.
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If Biden aims to slash power sector emissions to zero, his administration will have to grapple with how to displace much, if not all, of that natural gas power, energy experts have said.
