Democrats are suddenly more bullish about their chances of flipping the Republican-held Senate seat representing Kansas.
There are just two weeks until the highly anticipated Aug. 4 GOP primary between former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, Rep. Roger Marshall, and plumbing executive Bob Hamilton for the right to contest retiring Sen. Pat Roberts’s seat.
The winner will likely face party-switching Democratic state Sen. Barbara Bollier in the fall as Republicans aggressively fight to hold onto their Senate majority.
Both the Cook Political Report and RealClearPolitics predict the Kansas Senate seat will remain in the GOP’s ledger after the general election. National Republican Senatorial Committee spokeswoman Joanna Rodriguez was similarly confident the state would reelect a conservative.
“Kansans will never be convinced to allow a Chuck Schumer puppet like Barbara Bollier to represent them,” Rodriguez told the Washington Examiner, referring to the Democratic Senate minority leader.
Yet Democrats are buoyed by head-to-head polling between Bollier, Kobach, Marshall, and Hamilton that signal the race could be tighter than in previous cycles.
A Civiqs study published early June had Bollier and anyone from the Republican trio separated by 1 percentage point. Bollier was ahead of Kobach and Hamilton but trailed Marshall. Those results reflected conservative-leaning NMB Research in May that found Bollier was getting walloped by Marshall by 11 points but being behind Kobach by only 1 point.
Democrats also touted Bollier’s fundraising prowess. As of June 30, she had $4.3 million in the bank, as opposed to Hamilton’s $1.6 million, Marshall’s $1 million, and Kobach’s $145,000.
“Dr. Barbara Bollier is building a strong campaign focused on the issues Kansans care about most — like access to affordable healthcare. She’s outraising the entire Republican field combined, and she’s well-positioned to take on whoever emerges from this very nasty and bruising primary,” Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Stewart Boss said.
And the Republican candidates have turned on themselves amid the growing pressure.
For University of Kansas political science professor Patrick Miller, the GOP primary’s closing weeks have been marked by more “fireworks.”
Marshall’s camp has tried to paint Hamilton as being too liberal with soft immigration positions, hinting that they’re concerned he’ll take votes away from the House lawmaker, Miller explained. Marshall, who’s been endorsed by retired four-term Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas, a former Senate majority leader, has hit Kobach on his abortion record as well.
Meanwhile, Kobach has largely ignored Hamilton, according to Miller.
The controversial Trump ally, who failed in his 2018 gubernatorial bid in the traditionally red state, has instead pummeled Marshall on his weaker immigration stance. He’s also pushed reports that the son of Marshall’s former orthopedic surgical center business partner and neighbor, a county attorney, asked a district court judge in 2008 to remove Marshall’s reckless driving conviction from a sentencing document and replace it with a lesser traffic infraction.
Miller described the primary as “a coin flip,” though Kobach may have a small advantage.
“The last polling that we had was before Bob Hamilton started his big advertising blitz. The primary polling has been so sparse. We don’t really have a gauge whether that has led to him getting more support. He’s a big unknown in the race,” he said.
Democrats only need three to four more Senate seats on Nov. 3 to wrest the chamber’s control from Republican Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Prior to the summer polling, Democrats were more optimistic about Kansas being a pick-up opportunity if Kobach was the nominee because his unpopularity would drive turnout against him.
Miller believed that Kobach is still the Democrats’ preferred opponent. And the Sunflower State PAC, a Democratic group, had attempted to boost Kobach, CNN and Politico reported this month.
“I don’t think anyone’s going to say it’s going to be a toss-up or that she’s going to be ahead,” he said of Bollier. “But there’s the feeling that it’s a race that could be in play for them, more competitive than normal, even if Marshall is the nominee.”
Yet positive feelings about Kansas haven’t spilled over to Democratic investments in the state given there were “more tempting targets,” Miller added. Kansas, however, was a relatively cheap state for campaigns due to the media market prices of population centers such as Kansas City, Topeka, and Wichita.
“Kansas, Kentucky, South Carolina, they’re all getting more attention right now than they probably should in a ‘normal election,'” Miller said. “All of them would be tough flips for Democrats, to be sure. Although I think Kansas would be an easier seat for Democrats to flip than Kentucky or South Carolina because Trump’s approval tends to be lower here.”
He continued: “Bollier has to win fewer Trump voters probably than Amy McGrath does in Kentucky or Jamie Harrison in South Carolina.”
