As crime rises and voters grow increasingly worried about it, some of the most vulnerable House Democrats will compete this year for control of districts where violence has spiked.
Democrats up and down the ballot are bracing for the prospect of a brutal midterm election come November, with President Joe Biden’s approval ratings continuing to plummet and voters signaling a growing interest in Republican candidates.
House Democrats in swing districts will have to confront voter concerns about public safety at a time when their party is shouldering the blame for embracing leftist policies that critics say have exacerbated the problem.
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Of the seven districts that the Cook Political Report rates as Democratic-controlled “toss-ups,” meaning either party could prevail on a relatively level playing field, five have hosted increases in crime.
One appears to have seen a decrease, and one, North Carolina’s 2nd Congressional District, does not yet have set boundaries due to a legal dispute over redistricting, according to a Washington Examiner analysis.
Iowa 3
Represented by Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne, Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District will be fiercely contested this year by Republicans hoping to claw back a seat they lost during the Trump years.
The district includes the southwest corner of the state and Des Moines, Iowa’s capital and largest city.
Homicides increased significantly in Des Moines starting in 2020, when the city saw a 50% spike.
While the number of homicides in Des Moines last year dropped from 2020, police said the number of shootings increased dramatically in 2021.
Axne’s race for reelection is expected to be one of the most competitive in the country. She won reelection in 2020 by less than 1.5 percentage points, becoming one of just a handful of Democrats to notch narrow victories in districts that voted for then-President Donald Trump that year.
Illinois 17
Rep. Cheri Bustos was among the first potentially vulnerable Democrats to announce plans to retire before the midterm elections, and her district has also seen an uptick in crime.
Peoria, Illinois, parts of which fall into Illinois 17, was named the 15th-deadliest city in the United States last year.
A state legislator representing Peoria said in January that “crime has skyrocketed,” with carjackings and retail theft up across the region.
Peoria saw a spike in homicides in 2021, recording 34 murders last year.
Rockford, Illinois, which falls partially in the district, also saw an increase in violent crime last year — although the rise in violence was smaller than what occurred between when crime spiked dramatically in 2020.
Redistricting expanded the territory in which Bustos’s successor must compete — adding Bloomington, Illinois, to the district.
Local law enforcement in that region recently testified before state lawmakers that policing the rise in crime has been made more difficult by a perceived lack of support from leaders and the community.
Michigan 7
Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin is among the most vulnerable House Democrats, and the state’s redistricting process left her with a swath of central Michigan that is likely to serve as a difficult battleground in November.
Lansing, Michigan, which now falls entirely within the bounds of Slotkin’s newly drawn district, saw an uptick in crime as the pandemic began.
FBI data showed that Lansing had the ninth-highest rate of violent crime in the country in 2020, reflecting an increase in crime that year.
The city had surpassed 2020’s number of homicides by October of last year as crime rates climbed even higher.
Slotkin has acknowledged the role that concerns about violence could play in her reelection bid. She said in January that crime was among the top issues her constituents raised and suggested that the White House should focus more on safety concerns.
“They’re talking about crime, right, and concerns about security,” Slotkin said on NBC’s Meet the Press. “They’re talking about whether their kids are going to be able to stay in school. Those are the things that people are talking about. And I think that’s, in my mind, what the White House should be laser focused on.”
Virginia 2
The homicide rate has increased significantly in the Hampton Roads region of Virginia, where Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria is running for reelection in the state’s newly redrawn 2nd Congressional District.
In Chesapeake, Virginia, a city more fully encompassed by Luria’s new district, homicides jumped more than 60%, with 16 murders occurring in 2020 and 26 murders occurring in 2021.
Luria has spoken about the increase in violence previously, and the issue is likely to factor into the race for her reelection as Republicans seek to make it a central issue nationally.
Luria called for stricter gun laws, including more background checks, as an answer to the increase in violence.
Maine 2
Rep. Jared Golden is set to defend his representation of Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, which covers the largest share of the state geographically, against the backdrop of a decrease in crime.
Crime overall dropped 6% in 2020 compared to 2019, and the state saw a decrease in homicides in 2021.
Much of Golden’s district is rural, and it was one of the few that went for Trump in 2020 while also sending a Democrat to the House of Representatives.
Michigan 8
Rep. Dan Kildee will defend a Democratic seat in Michigan’s new 8th Congressional District, which contains Flint, Saginaw, and Midland.
Flint experienced a 12% increase in homicides last year over 2020.
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Homicides jumped significantly in Saginaw in 2020 — more than tripling the number recorded in 2019.
While there were eight fewer murders in Saginaw last year, the homicide level was still much higher than in 2019, before the nationwide spike in violence.
