The Republican Senate majority is in jeopardy of being washed away by a torrent of resources amassed by Democratic challengers in the third quarter, with GOP incumbents bracing to be vastly outspent in the final month of the campaign.
Democratic candidates are raising hundreds of millions of dollars. Even previously overlooked challengers saw their coffers swell with contributions from energized grassroots liberals in July, August, and September, turning sleepy Senate races into a potential nightmare for sitting Republicans and the party’s precarious three-seat majority.
It’s no longer just Arizona, Colorado, and Maine, blue-trending battlegrounds where Republicans were prepared for a dogfight from the beginning of the 2020 cycle — or purple states such as Iowa and North Carolina. They are now looking over their shoulder in typically ruby-red territory such as Alaska, Georgia, Kansas, Mississippi, Montana, and South Carolina.
“The numbers are astounding,” GOP operative Doug Heye said. “Republicans are right to be concerned.”
Jesse Hunt, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, dismissed the Democrats’ third-quarter haul as tainted by “dark money” from super PACs and “special interests.” He said it is “undermining some of their candidates’ credibility.”
Third-quarter fundraising totals are not due to be released until Oct. 15. But Democrats have begun publicizing their numbers.
In a Georgia special Senate election Democrats hope to push to a runoff, party favorite pastor Raphael Warnock raised just under $13 million in the third quarter. The contest takes place on the same day as the Nov. 3 general election. In Michigan, one of Republicans’ few opportunities to pick up a seat, Democratic Sen. Gary Peters raised $14 million in the three months ending Sept. 30.
Even in Texas, a race where Republican Sen. John Cornyn is favored and that has received little attention, Democratic challenger MJ Hegar raised $13.5 million. Meanwhile, in North Carolina, Democrat Cal Cunningham raised $28.3 million. The only thing that might save Republican Sen. Thom Tillis, GOP insiders say, is that Cunningham is now facing questions about possibly multiple extramarital affairs.
But despite possibly catching a break in North Carolina, Republican strategists say the potential for a wipeout has increased significantly given the resources Democrats have collected.
“I’m worried,” a senior Republican official conceded. “Mississippi — Democrats are pouring in money. South Carolina — it’s for real. Kansas — it didn’t end when [Kris] Kobach lost” the GOP primary. Dan Eberhart, a Republican donor who contributes to Senate candidates, acknowledged the anxiety swirling around the party. “We are being outspent, no two ways about it,” he said. “There are clearly concerns going into the final month.”
To protect their majority, Republicans have been forced to invest money in unusual places. South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, markedly outspent by Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison, is receiving help from the Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. The group also is spending in Kansas to protect a GOP-held open seat. Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.
Another potential albatross for Senate Republicans is President Trump. He trails Democratic nominee Joe Biden, and after contracting the coronavirus and being forced off the campaign trail to quarantine, Republicans worry that, combined with the Democratic money, the GOP is facing a “bloodbath.”
Some Republicans strategists are optimistic the GOP will hold the line.
In reliably red states, Republicans expect a Trump victory and voters who value the party’s grip on the majority to carry them across the finish line. In these states, the fight over a vacant Supreme Court seat that has fueled record Democratic fundraising could pay dividends for Republican incumbents. There is also the issue of how much money a Democrat can possibly spend in some of these states.
The cash allows Democratic challengers a chance to drown out Republicans on television and fund robust voter turnout operations with all of the technological frills. But Republicans say that as long as quality, hardworking GOP incumbents have sufficient money to broadcast their message and get their voters to the polls, they can survive.
“Money is important but not correlated to victory,” said David Carney, a Republican strategist in New Hampshire.
