If a blue wave comes in November, Republicans are counting on the Senate to be their red firewall. “We could have a blue House, a red Senate, and a purple government headed into the next presidential election,” said Republican strategist Bruce Haynes.
Democrats are nevertheless starting to hope the midterm elections are so lopsided in their favor that even the Senate could be in play. “At this point, I wouldn’t rule it out,” said a Democratic strategist advising several candidates running this year.
While that could be a stretch, it’s a sign of the times that Republicans are devoting more resources to Tennessee and Texas than Pennsylvania or Ohio. President Trump’s campaign announced on Monday an Oct. 1 rally in Johnson City, Tenn., to boost Republican Senate nominee Rep. Marsha Blackburn. Trump will campaign for Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, later in the month.
Democrats are defending Senate seats this year in 10 states Trump carried in 2016. But the president’s numbers have dipped in nearly half of them, narrowing the party’s favorable map. Trump’s preferred candidates won the GOP Senate primaries in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, but none of the Democratic incumbents in these states are seen as being in serious danger. Neither is Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., who leads by 11 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average.
With the exception of Ohio, which Trump won by 8 points, those are some of the bluer states to go Republican in the last presidential contest. It’s not shocking that they would revert to their Democratic roots in a midterm election.
But Trump won West Virginia by 42 points and remains popular there now. Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin still leads Republican Patrick Morrisey by an average of 9.3 points — a full percentage point higher than the edge maintained by Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J. Trump will campaign against Manchin in Wheeling, W.Va., on Saturday.
Sen. Joe Donnelly, D-Ind., is still leading by 3.8 percentage points. Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., is up by 5.4. Trump has paid visits to both states. The only Republican challengers who are ahead are Florida Gov. Rick Scott, who squeaks past Sen. Bill Nelson by 0.3 points; Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley, who leads Sen. Claire McCaskill by 0.6; and Rep. Kevin Cramer, who is up 1.6 points ahead Sen. Heidi Heitkamp.
Democrats have three legitimate Senate pickup opportunities: the Arizona seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Jeff Flake, where Rep. Kyrsten Sinema has taken a 1.5-point lead; Nevada, where Rep. Jackie Rosen clings to a 0.7-point advantage over GOP Sen. Dean Heller; and Tennessee, where Democratic former Gov. Phil Bredesen is tied with Blackburn in the race to replace retiring Sen. Bob Corker.
In a blue wave, that’s not bad — Republicans have a shot of retaining all the seats they now hold and could pick up several, expanding their narrow 51-49 Senate majority. But no Republican challenger has a decisive lead; Democrats are ahead in two of the three states they are trying to flip and tied in the third; targeted Tester’s lead in Montana is almost as large as Cruz’s in Texas.
Sexual assault allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh may have reduced the pressure of red state Democrats to vote to confirm him. If Kavanaugh is not approved, it could demoralize Republican bases voters in these states.
Democrats captured the Senate in 2006 when they nearly swept all the competitive races (Tennessee was the exception that year). The question is whether the House and Senate matches are taking place in hermetically sealed containers or whether a Democratic tide can wash out red state Republicans too.
Which theory is correct will determine whether we see a Democratic Senate or possibly an even more Republican one.
