After four years locked in an uncomfortable embrace, leading Republicans and Beltway conservatives are beginning their quest to distance themselves and the GOP from former President Donald Trump, who shows no sign of going anywhere.
It began with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, the Kentucky Republican who helped Trump advance legislation and confirm conservative federal judges, announcing his vote to acquit the ex-president in a speech that sounded more like a conviction. McConnell said Trump’s “wild falsehoods” made him “practically and morally responsible” for the deadly Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol, calling it a “foreseeable consequence” of the defeated president’s “false statements, conspiracy theories, and reckless hyperbole” about the election, leading to a “manufactured atmosphere of looming catastrophe” that culminated in mob violence as Trump “watched television happily.”
McConnell followed up with an op-ed arguing that the Constitution, in his view, required Trump’s acquittal due to limits on the impeachment power, even though the then-president’s “behavior during and after the chaos was … unconscionable, from attacking Vice President Mike Pence during the riot to praising the criminals after it ended.”
The Wall Street Journal editorial page, highly influential among conservatives, praised McConnell for condemning but acquitting Trump and urged the Republican Party to move on from the polarizing reality television star: “Mr. Trump may run again, but he won’t win another national election. … The country is moving past the Trump presidency, and the GOP will remain in the wilderness until it does too.”
George Will, the dean of Washington conservative columnists and a frequent Trump critic, also weighed in on McConnell’s behalf. “McConnell knows that Trump’s grip on the Republican base — its activist core, which is disproportionately important in candidate-selection primaries — remains unshaken,” Will wrote. “But not unshakable.”
Then Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor who served as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations under Trump, became the first 2024 GOP aspirant to distance herself from her onetime boss. “We need to acknowledge that he let us down,” she said. “He went down a path he shouldn’t have, and we shouldn’t have followed him, and we shouldn’t have listened to him. And we can’t let that ever happen again.” Haley predicted Trump’s influence would fade, a view echoed by some Republican insiders.
“Mitch McConnell is the leader of the Republican Party now. Period,” said longtime GOP strategist Jim Dornan. “You will see a lot of sound and fury from Trump for the next few months, but voters in this country have very short memories, and he will fade into the background like every other former president, especially with his social media megaphone taken away.”
Trump quickly fired back with a statement dismissing McConnell as a “dour, sullen, and unsmiling political hack,” signaling he won’t pass quietly into the good night and telling Republicans their Senate leader will doom them to defeat. Trump was also out front in the media on Wednesday after the death of talk show host Rush Limbaugh, a conservative icon.
“I am not sure why McConnell wanted this fight — and, let’s be clear, by going to the floor of the Senate and absolutely savaging Trump, he knew this feud would escalate,” said conservative strategist Chris Barron. “McConnell’s decision to go to war with Trump will only make it harder for him to regain the majority and only serve to deepen Trump’s support among his base. It’s truly perplexing.”
The Republican establishment and elite conservative commentators have mobilized against Trump before without much success. There are some data points that suggest it won’t be any easier this time around. A Quinnipiac University poll out Monday found that 87% of Republicans say Trump should be allowed to hold office again — disqualification from a future campaign was a major motivator behind the post-presidential impeachment fight — and 75% of his party mates want him to play a “prominent role” in the GOP going forward.
Gallup similarly found that 68% of Republicans want Trump to remain the party’s leader. An Axios-Ipsos poll concluded 57% want him to be the GOP’s 2024 nominee. A Morning Consult survey showed Trump 41 points ahead of the next closest Republican, Pence, the former vice president, and trouncing Haley 53% to 6%. According to Quinnipiac, only 11% share McConnell’s view that Trump incited the violence at the Capitol.
All that could change as Republicans increasingly shift their focus to President Biden. “By speaking out against McConnell, Trump is letting Senate Republicans who are up for reelection understand that he’s not going away quietly,” said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean. “However, McConnell and most of his conference are going to be united against many of Biden’s policies from being put into place, so it’s hard to see what the political impact of this feud might be here.”
But local Republicans are moving to censure, and perhaps even mount primary challenges against, GOP elected officials who break with Trump, suggesting anti-Trump voices in the party have a long way to go before convincing the rank-and-file.
