F-16s and Patriot missile systems may not be enough to ward off Russia in the Black Sea region, but positioning more U.S. rotational troops at Soviet-era bases is years away, say defense experts.
Following President Trump’s June call to remove 12,000 U.S. soldiers from Germany, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said rotational troops would be added to Europe’s southeastern flank. In congressional testimony recently, the Pentagon’s policy guru James Anderson boasted Romania and Bulgaria as likely destinations.
“Both Bulgaria and Romania are relatively new to NATO, having joined in 2004 with other countries, but they made tremendous strides,” he said in a Sept. 30 House Armed Services Committee hearing.
“We absolutely are looking to them as we reposition and move additional rotational forces through those two countries,” he said. “We think that this will strengthen deterrence along NATO’s southeastern flank in a very positive way. And so, we’re excited about this possibility.”
But experts say it will be years before countries along the Black Sea will have the infrastructure to host more U.S. troops.
“There’s no way that right now the countries in the Baltic States and then down along the Black Sea in Romania have the host nation support capability for a large and enduring influx of U.S. rotational forces,” the Heritage Foundation’s Luke Coffey asserted in a recent interview with the Washington Examiner.
European security analyst Dr. Pal Dunay told the Washington Examiner in an interview from Germany that deterrence must involve troops and Russia is hungry to regain lost shoreline in the Black Sea.
“Deterrence is not served exclusively by weapons systems,” he said.
“The Russian seashore has become relatively short over there,” he added, describing how until the 1980s, the Black Sea was a virtual “Warsaw Pact Lake” for its countries’ membership in the historic defense pact with Moscow. Only Turkey allowed U.S. ships to enter.
Nonetheless, both the Romanian and Bulgarian defense ministers during separate visits to the Pentagon last week talked up hardware purchases and signed 10-year “road maps” for defense cooperation.
‘Strategically so important’
Esper courted both countries with talk of defense modernization and deterring Russia. But the two Balkan allies do not yet have the capacity to host the U.S. troops ordered by Trump in June to drawdown from Germany.
“The Black Sea is strategically so important,” said Dunay. “That’s why we are a little bit worried that one day, we will wake up and the Russians will take [Ukraine’s] Odesa or some other ports,” he said.
Defense Department spokesman Army Lt. Col. Thomas Campbell confirmed to the Washington Examiner Wednesday that the European strategic force posture, the shuffling of troops on the continent, was part of Esper’s discussion with the Romanian and Bulgarian defense leaders.
Romania has a continual rotational troop presence of about 800 soldiers at bases, including Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base, Naval Support Facility Deveselu, and Multinational Division Southeast in Bucharest.
Bulgaria has far fewer spread over Novo Selo Training Area, Graf Ignatievo Air Base, and Bezmer Air Base. The “small contingent” of U.S. troops in Bulgaria fluctuates based on training rotations, according to Campbell. Such a force could range from dozens to a few hundred.
In July, Esper put strategy behind rhetoric when he explained Trump’s calls to remove troops from Germany as a recognition that the NATO borders had moved east.
“We’re following, in many ways, the boundary east, where our newest allies are,” Esper said in the July 29 Pentagon briefing that highlighted opportunities for additional forces in the Black Sea region, Poland, and the Baltics.
“That’s why it’s a strategic laydown that enhances deterrence, strengthens the allies, reassures them,” he said.
Coffey was doubtful.
“We should not bolster the U.S. presence in the Baltic Sea or the Black Sea regions at the expense of the U.S. presence in Germany,” he said. “These rotational plans are aspirational right now, for the most part.”
‘It will be years’
During the two defense minister visits, held three days apart, Esper highlighted both partners’ 2% of GDP defense investments.
The defense secretary noted Bulgaria’s recent purchase of F-16s, while in public comments, Romanian Defense Minister Nicolae Ciuca shined his country’s August delivery of Patriot missile systems. The aerial defense hardware makes Romania the first country on NATO’s eastern flank to have such a sophisticated system.
“The United States is our strongest ally,” Ciuca said. “Romania’s recent National Defense Strategy 2020-2024 highlights both the importance and the priority of working together in securing U.S. strategic flexibility in the Black Sea.”
He added: “Romania and the U.S. are unlocking the potential of the Black Sea.”
That may be so, agreed Dunay, noting that corruption and dubious democratic conditions in Bulgaria make it more challenging diplomatically to work with the country.
“The Bulgarians are not such a good ally, but Romania is a very good ally, and Romania deserves reinforcement and reassurance,” he said.
Security assistance projects funded by the European Deterrence Initiative included investments in Romanian airfields, munitions, and other flying operations infrastructure, U.S. European command told the Washington Examiner.
The $20 billion program was created in 2014 after Russia’s invasion of Crimea on the Black Sea coast and has helped NATO partners across Europe to upgrade and host U.S. and NATO forces on rotation.
“With the occupation of Crimea, the Russian Federation got significantly closer physically to the Romanian border,” said Dunay. “There is a big U.S. presence close to Constanta in Romania on the Black Sea shore, which is, of course, contributing to [Russia] deterrence.”
Coffey uncoupled the Black Sea partners’ defense purchases and lack of ability to host more American troops, instead stressing the partners will have time to prepare.
“It will be years before the U.S. troops that were in Germany are rotating to Bulgaria or Romania,” he said. “In fact, the new home in the U.S. for troops returning from Germany is not known.”
While the positioning of U.S. troops in the Black Sea is hampered by limited infrastructure, Dunay points out it would also create a stir with Russia, with whom the U.S. is currently negotiating to extend the New START treaty to limit deployed strategic nuclear weapons.
“Such measures are highly symbolic and objectionable by Russia,” Dunay said.
The analyst also said that American ships entering the Black Sea are regularly harassed by unsafe Russian overflights.
“I’m really afraid that one day we will have a moment when we will lose control. And that would not be a nice moment,” he added.
