A government shutdown at the end of the week would add uncertainty around the holidays for tens of thousands of government workers and contractors.
Unlike the other two brief government funding lapses earlier this year, only a quarter of federal government funding would lapse if Congress and President Trump fail to enact legislation this week.
Republicans and Democrats passed compromise spending legislation earlier this year that funded the military, veterans services, and health services, among other portions of the federal government.
But a majority of federal departments were not included and would have to cease services unrelated to national security in a shutdown. They include the departments of Homeland Security, Justice, State, Agriculture, and Housing and Urban Development.
The full impact of a partial shutdown would depend on its length. Negotiations between Trump and Congress will determine that, and they remain a distance for any potential endgame, given Trump’s demand for $5 billion in funding for a border wall with Mexico and congressional resistance to it.
In the event a partial shutdown does happen, then, based on past guidance, border control agents, along with other federal law enforcement deemed essential, would work without pay — a fact Democrats would be sure to seize on.
The Department of Agriculture would have to suspend assistance programs to farmers, including those the administration is offering to subsidize that are caught in the crossfire of the ongoing trade war with China.
Federal Housing Administration mortgage insurance processing would be suspended, potentially interrupting the home purchases of thousands of people. National parks might also close, as the Department of Interior would also see a lapse.
The exact fallout from a shutdown is hard to gauge because the Office of Management and Budget has yet to publish a shutdown plan, which it typically does in the lead-up to a government funding lapse to provide a blueprint for what to expect.
Each department affected lays out what it views as essential personnel and functions that would continue in the event of lapsed funding, in coordination with OMB. Some affected departments have already updated guidance from earlier this year, when another shutdown loomed, while others have not. A White House web page with agency contingency plans from the full shutdown that occurred earlier this year has been taken down.
Still, a short-term shutdown or funding lapse could have a minimal impact on services and payments to workers, especially since many offices will be closed for Christmas. Congress also typically provides back pay to federal workers who work during a shutdown, but may or may not provide that pay to furloughed workers.
