Forecasters expect the Labor Department to report that about 1.6 million jobs were added to payrolls in July and that the unemployment rate dropped to 10.6% from June’s 11.1%.

Before the pandemic, 1.6 million new jobs in a month would have been a record. Given the cataclysmic job separations of the spring, however, it would suggest that the recovery has fallen off the pace needed to return the labor market back to normal and avoid a deep and lasting recession. In comparison, 5 million jobs were created in May and June.

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