Republicans are not expecting problems with mail-in ballots, cast predominantly by supporters of Joe Biden, will do much to help Trump, believing predictions of massive vote rejections due to confusion and error are off base.
When Democrats across the country embraced mail-in voting to avoid the risk of contracting the coronavirus at polling places, Republicans, and even some Democrats, worried Biden could lose millions of votes due to incorrectly marked or late-arriving ballots. But after aggressive voter education and ballot-chasing programs deployed by the Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee, Republicans now expect the number of ballots thrown out to be negligible in key battlegrounds such as Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.
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In Pennsylvania, the battleground that could decide the election, error rates are exceedingly low. Additionally, county elections officials are contacting voters whose ballots were incorrectly marked, and the Democratic National Committee is running a “cure” program, with party officials and volunteers working directly with voters to fix mistakes and resubmit previously rejected ballots. Some level of Pennsylvania mail-in ballots will be thrown out, but not enough to save Trump if he is losing the state.
Jeffrey Brauer, a political science professor at Pennsylvania’s Keystone College, said Tuesday the number of rejected ballots is likely to be “so small,” the race between Biden and Trump would have to be “extremely, extremely close” close for the issue to influence the outcome.
“I don’t think we’ll have that kind of problem here in North Carolina,” said Tim Wigginton, spokesman for the North Carolina Republican Party. “You’re talking about a small error rate.”
Some Republicans say Trump might gain some ground on Biden from Democratic ballot errors. But in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, they are not confident the rejections will amount to enough to help Trump if he trails the former vice president by as many percentage points as projected by many public opinion polls. Republicans went to court and succeeded in blocking each of those states from counting ballots received after Nov. 3, even if postmarked on Election Day.
Especially in Minnesota and Wisconsin, Democrats also stand to benefit from the fact that voters in those states are more familiar with mailing in their ballots than voters in, for instance, Pennsylvania.
“I don’t think” it’s going to matter, a Republican operative in Wisconsin said. “We have a pretty robust absentee system that is widely trusted by both sides of the aisle.”
But a second GOP operative in Wisconsin countered that the possibility of mail-in ballot spoilage, to Trump’s benefit, cannot be ruled out, revealing some differences of opinion in Republican circles. “It could be problematic for the Democrats,” this GOP insider said.
Republicans insist Trump does not need Democratic mistakes to win reelection. Asked to comment on the issue, an official with the Republican National Committee demurred. Instead, this official said the RNC data analytics and voter turnout operations are predicting an avalanche of GOP voters to show up at polling places Tuesday and pull the lever for Trump, swamping support for Biden and proving the public opinion polls wrong.
In Pennsylvania, where a complicated mail-in balloting process prompted Democrats to launch a voter education program specifically targeting the state, Republican operative Charlie Gerow said potential problems with mail-in ballots were irrelevant because Trump was on track win on the strength of turnout by his supporters.
“That’s pretty convoluted,” Gerow said when asked if Trump might benefit from mail-in ballot errors. “Trump’s voters are going to turn out no matter what.”
In a conference call with reporters Monday, Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon argued the Democratic nominee was on track to win the presidency, citing his strength in key states throughout the Midwest and the Sunbelt. In doing so, she emphasized that the Biden campaign has not seen major, or even minor, problems emerge with the surge in mail-in balloting by Democratic voters.
“We are also a success when it comes to mail-in voting,” O’Malley Dillon said. “What we’re are also seeing, as we look under the hood and we coordinate and get more information, is that people are doing it correctly. Their rejection rates of vote-by-mail is incredibly small.”
Trump sent Republican lawyers to court over several months to block states from extending the deadline for receipt of mail-in ballots predominantly used by Democratic voters, succeeding in three Midwestern battlegrounds that could hold the key to his reelection prospects.
Five days before Election Day, a federal appellate court blocked Minnesota from counting ballots received after 8 p.m. Tuesday, scrapping the state’s plan to tally votes received up to seven days later as long as they are postmarked Nov. 3 or earlier. With Democrats more inclined to vote by mail rather than in-person to avoid the risk of contracting the coronavirus, the ruling could cost Democratic nominee Joe Biden if Minnesota is close.
The same goes for Michigan and Wisconsin. On Monday, Supreme Court affirmed a federal appellate court ruling overturning the six-day extension granted to Wisconsin for counting ballots that arrive in the mail after Election Day. In Michigan, a state appeals court vacated a lower court decision establishing a 14-day extension for counting mail-in ballots postmarked no later than Nov. 2. Some Democrats remain concerned.
“If there’s a free and fair election, Biden wins,” said Dane Strother, a veteran Democratic strategist. “But free and fair is far from where we might end up.”
