Pollster Matt Towery, one of the few who correctly called President Trump’s 2016 election victory, believes the president is on his way to reelection in 2020.
The Wall Street Journal asked Towery if he is confident Trump will pull off another victory.
“I am,” he answered, “And I’m increasingly confident.”
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Despite other pollsters showing huge leads for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, Towery said polls aren’t good at “picking up the average guy on the street.” Towery also said that the use of cellphones to collect data and the length of questioning leads to a less accurate result for most pollsters.
“How many young people do you know who will answer a call from an unknown number on their cellphones and happily spend the next 20 minutes answering questions,” he asked.
Towery said his firm, InsiderAdvantage, uses a mix of techniques to get people to answer their polls. The strategy led to Towery writing a memo on the eve of the 2016 election laying out the case that conventional polling was wrong.
Fox News anchor Sean Hannity read the memo on air during his show back in 2016, where Towery argued most polls “were being weighted based on a conventional turnout in a very unconventional year, and there is a ‘Trump vote’ that most pollsters just are not able to capture.”
“I fully expect Donald Trump to win this election and in a manner that will leave pollsters and pundits stunned,” Towery concluded in 2016.
Towery believes pollsters are missing the mark again, including not seeing a swing toward Trump among black voters. In 2016, Trump only captured 8% of the black vote. Towery believes the president could close to double that number this year.
He also believes young voters, typically a reliable Democratic voter bloc, are breaking more toward Trump because they do not want the type of lockdowns being proposed by Biden.
He also added that Trump’s massive rallies will pay off for the president.
“Many people are passionate about voting against Trump,” Towery said. “But the crowds Trump is drawing says there are people who will walk over hot coals to vote for Trump.”
InsiderAdvantage currently has Trump leading in many critical battleground states in its most recent polls, including Florida, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Iowa. The group’s Michigan poll shows Trump trailing by only 2 points, half of the RealClearPolitics average of four points.
Like 2016, Towery said pundits are in for another shocker when the 2020 results come in.
“I think the pollsters and pundits who had this a blowout for Biden are not going to be very happy later this week,” Towery said.
