Speaker Nancy Pelosi, having lost at least 12 seats for her party in the House, can only lose so many Democrats if she wants to retain power next month.
Pelosi, 80, will run for speaker the first week in January when the House convenes for the 117th Congress. The entire House, including Republicans, vote for the speaker, meaning she must win 218 votes. No Democratic member challenged her for the post when her caucus nominated her virtually by voice vote last month.
Fifteen House Democrats did not vote for Pelosi when she ran for speaker in January 2019, but she secured the top leadership job over California Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy, with 220 votes to 150 votes.
Ultimately, Democrats could end up with 222 members in their caucus to the Republicans’ 213 if the Republican candidates in the presently contested Iowa and New York House races are seated. In that scenario, Pelosi could only afford to lose four Democratic members if Republicans are united in opposing her.
Only Michigan Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin made it clear she will not support Pelosi for the speakership post after a one-on-one meeting with her. Last cycle, she voted “present.”
Four of the 15 Democratic seats occupied by a member who did not support Pelosi’s run for speaker are now held by Republicans, either because the Democrats lost reelection or they defected.
Although Slotkin says that Democrats who did not vote for Pelosi last time have not come up to her in confidence about whether they will support the California Democrat, it does not mean anything can happen on the floor in January.
“I think some people have changed their mind. Some people haven’t, but that’s the list I would work off of,” she told the Washington Examiner.
For Pelosi, Democrats prevailing in the contested New York and Iowa races gives her more latitude and less pressure to look for a last-minute cushion of support from members of her own party, should an unlikely revolt occur between now and January.
Rita Hart, the Democrat in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District race, announced last week that she will file a petition to the House Administration Committee contesting the certified results for the election, which had her Republican opponent, Marianette Miller-Meeks, victorious by just six votes.
Retiring Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack, who supported the speaker, presently holds the seat.
New York’s 22nd Congressional District contest shows the Republican, Claudia Tenney, ahead by 12 votes against the Democratic incumbent Rep. Anthony Brindisi. The ballots are being reviewed in court, and if the election is not finalized there, it could end up in the House like the Iowa congressional race, Pelosi suggested Friday.
Brindisi was considered one of the most vulnerable lawmakers this election cycle and was among the 15 Democrats who voted against Pelosi in 2019 in an effort to endear himself to voters in the more conservative district of central New York.
