How nervous are Democrats as they watch economic anxieties rise and public approval of President Obama’s handling of the economy fall?
Very nervous. “The president is extremely vulnerable, extraordinarily vulnerable,” says a plugged-in Democratic strategist. “I’m stunned that he’s going on vacation. It’s just appallingly stupid. The stupidity of it just amazes me.”
“Vulnerable” is an understatement. In a new Gallup poll, just 26 percent of those surveyed approve of Obama’s handling of the economy, while 71 percent disapprove. And unhappiness with the president’s economic policy is the major force dragging down his overall job approval rating with key independent voters: A recent Fox News poll, in which Obama had a 42 percent general approval rating, found that just 31 percent of independents approve of his job performance, while 55 percent disapprove.
If those numbers don’t rise, Obama will lose next November. It’s no wonder that another Democratic strategist, Celinda Lake, sent out a message this week saying simply: “Getting urgent to have an economic plan and literally repeat an aspect every day.” It turns out the plan is coming, but only after Obama’s vacation in Martha’s Vineyard.
On the Republican side, the battle for the presidential nomination is dominated by two governors, Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who are stressing job creation and economic recovery. But there’s still some dissatisfaction with the GOP field, and now some prominent figures in the party are trying to convince Rep. Paul Ryan, chairman of the House Budget Committee, to enter the race.
A Ryan candidacy would highlight a schism of sorts inside the GOP. Republicans won last year’s midterm election on a platform of jobs, jobs, jobs. Yet they have spent much of this year trying to cut federal spending. And that has sparked an internal debate over whether the party is on the right track.
On election night 2010, Republican strategists conducted a poll that asked GOP voters, “During the past year, many people have posed the question, ‘Where are the jobs?’ Would you agree or disagree that this was THE central question in this election?” Seventy-seven percent of those surveyed agreed, versus just 20 percent who disagreed. That same night, the pollsters asked Republican voters which issue had been most important in deciding their vote. Fifty-four percent said jobs and the economy, versus 10 percent who said the deficit and federal spending.
This month, after months of fights over budgets, continuing resolutions, and the debt ceiling, the Republican pollsters asked another simple question: “Which is more important — reducing government spending or creating jobs?” Sixty-five percent said creating jobs, versus 30 percent who said reducing spending.
Ryan is perhaps the single Republican most associated with the cause of reducing government spending. Until now, most Republican presidential candidates have been hesitant to fully embrace Ryan’s budget plan, which among its many proposals calls for a voucherlike program to reform Medicare. If Ryan were in the race, there would be one candidate running wholeheartedly on the budget; if he were the nominee, the Ryan plan would be the Republican Party platform.
In recent months Republicans have sought to sell the Ryan budget as a jobs-creating program, not just a plan to cut spending. A candidate Ryan would have to step that up several notches.
“In his opening speech, he’s got to accomplish one thing, and that is redefining the budget plan in such a way that people say, ‘He’s trying to grow the economy and create jobs,'” says a well-connected Republican strategist. “The question is, what does he say, and would it work?”
Well, would it? The strategist paused for quite a while and said, “It would have to be a really, really good speech.”
The Democrats’ reaction would be entirely predictable: “Mediscare” on steroids. “A Ryan run would just move the Republicans a little bit farther to the right on an issue that is an absolute deal killer for seniors,” says the Democratic strategist. “A deal killer. Even though they say it’s not going to affect anybody who’s on Medicare now, nobody believes that. It’s like a Democrat saying, ‘I’m not going to raise taxes.'”
If that happened, an election overwhelmingly about jobs and the economy could turn on fights about Medicare and the deficit. Barack Obama, now in desperate trouble, might have a significantly better chance than in a matchup with Mitt Romney or Rick Perry.
In 2008 voters elected Obama to fix the economy, and he spent much of his time on Obamacare. In 2010 they elected Republicans to fix the economy, and they spent much of their time on the deficit. Will any candidate in 2012 address their concerns?
Byron York, The Examiner’s chief political correspondent, can be contacted at [email protected]. His column appears on Tuesday and Friday, and his stories and blogposts appear on ExaminerPolitics.com.
