“We’re a slightly right-of-center state, with slightly right-of-center policies in terms of regulation and the economy, which predominate voters’ minds,” a senior North Carolina Republican said. “Those are winners for the president.”

Trump captured North Carolina in 2016, defeating Democrat Hillary Clinton by 3.6 percentage points. That improved on Republican Mitt Romney’s 2-point victory over President Barack Obama in 2012 and Obama’s .32-point victory over John McCain in 2008. But Democrats flipped the governor’s mansion in 2018, and Bishop vastly underperformed Trump’s 12-point 2016 margin of victory in the 9th District.

The hurdles are similar to what Republicans are dealing with in emerging but as yet unproven presidential battlegrounds such as Arizona. The Charlotte and Phoenix suburbs, in a direct rebuke of Trump, are steadily turning blue.

Republicans lost a Senate seat in Arizona in 2018 for the first time in a generation, although they easily defended the governor’s mansion. In North Carolina, Trump’s enthusiastic, rural white voting base is more pronounced and available to counteract the realignment underway in the suburbs. Indeed, top Republicans say Trump’s support for Bishop was key.

The president held a campaign rally for Bishop the evening before the special election; Vice President Mike Pence also visited the district. Ultimately, that attention boosted Bishop in the region’s rural communities enough to overcome his considerable deficit to Democrat Dan McCready in the suburbs.

[Read: ‘One down, one to go’: Trump hails special election victory in North Carolina]

“Donald Trump helped with turnout and enthusiasm,” said Rep. Richard Hudson, a Republican from North Carolina, who is assisting the party’s 2020 efforts.

Republicans interviewed for this story were careful not to appear as though they are taking North Carolina for granted. But beneath the anxiety that is typical for most professional political operatives, GOP officials believe the fundamentals should favor Trump as long as the party makes the right investments in resources, personnel, and strategy. On that front, North Carolina Republicans are pleased.

At the state party level, officials have been spending time in the critical counties to activate the grassroots. Nationally, the Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee, working side-by-side, have installed a veteran North Carolina operative to oversee the reelection bid there and in other Southern states. This strategist, Jason Simmons, held senior positions in North Carolina in 2012 for Romney’s presidential campaign, and in 2016 for Trump.

“He’s been in North Carolina for a while, quietly putting things together,” a knowledgeable GOP operative in the state said. “By the time the campaign really ramps up, it will have a strong [foundation] because of Jason and other folks that have done it before.”

The president’s approval ratings in North Carolina have been middling, as they are elsewhere, and Republicans in the state are expecting another close contest. Some concede that, among the Democratic front-runners, Joe Biden winning the nomination could shake their confidence in Trump.

Many Republicans believe that a candidate such as Elizabeth Warren, the Massachusetts senator, would ultimately be too liberal, in style and substance, to steal away the state’s crucial 15 votes in the Electoral College.

“If the vote were held today, and it was Trump versus Biden, Biden would win,” said a Republican insider in North Carolina. “He’s tougher to peg as socialist because he’s been in office so long, he gets along with everybody, which means he’s not that far out of the mainstream.”