MANCHESTER, New Hampshire — Republicans heading to the polls Tuesday for the final primaries ahead of November’s midterm elections are poised to reveal the forces driving the party as it seeks to reclaim power in Congress.
The Senate primary picking a challenger to Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) is a classic case of populist insurgent versus conservative pragmatist. Don Bolduc, a retired Army brigadier general, and New Hampshire Senate President Chuck Morse both vow to oppose President Joe Biden’s agenda and place a GOP check on Democratic power in Washington. But while Bolduc promises to fight the system and foment national renewal, Morse talks about delivering tangible legislative results with local impact.
That debate holds a striking resemblance to the closely watched Republican primary in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, a swing seat where the GOP is optimistic about ousting Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH).
Karoline Leavitt, a telegenic, 25-year-old first-time candidate, and Matt Mowers, 33, who sought this district in 2020, are both young and veterans of former President Donald Trump’s administration. But Leavitt has positioned herself as the conservative outsider girding for war with the GOP establishment. Mowers, while still promoting his conservative credentials, spends more time discussing plans to use his broader political experience to get things done in Congress for New Hampshire.
“The establishment is so afraid that I’m going to beat their hand-picked puppet on Tuesday that they’re spending $5 million to viciously smear not only me, but my family,” Leavitt, flanked by prominent booster Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), told grassroots supporters Thursday during a campaign rally in Londonderry. “They know … I’m the greatest threat to the establishment — and to help [drain] the swamp.”
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In prior comments to reporters, Leavitt knocked Mowers as a “career politician” who advised former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s 2016 campaign for the Republican presidential nomination and worked for a lobbying firm. “Matt Mowers can’t answer a question to save his life because he is bought and paid for by the party bosses,” she added. That was news to Mowers, who bristled at the criticism while speaking to reporters Friday.
“It’s baloney,” he said after meeting with first responders during a charity event at Derryfield Park in Manchester. “I’m doing this the New Hampshire way.”
Mowers, who lost to Pappas two years ago, said he is stumping for votes “diner to diner, restaurant to restaurant, bar to bar.” Asked about conservative stalwarts backing Leavitt — Cruz, Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), plus Reps. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) and Byron Donalds (R-FL) — Mowers growled. “I have a hunch that if you mentioned some of those names to anyone in this park, they’d have no idea who the heck you’re talking about,” he said.
Then Mowers argued his case for why he expected to win on Tuesday. It was notably absent populist catch-words and -phrases, such as “America first,” “draining the swamp,” and “establishment,” so prevalent in Leavitt’s remarks the evening before.
“People want somebody who’s been tested; they want somebody who’s actually done this,” Mowers said, “not somebody that just talks about it.” Mowers has been endorsed by former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and prominent former Trump administration official Ric Grenell.
Several Republicans are running in the 1st Congressional District GOP primary, including Gail Huff Brown, wife of former Sen. Scott Brown. But Leavitt and Mowers are most viable, with Mowers considered the front-runner, albeit some polls have shown Leavitt nipping at his heels.
Mowers is backed by top Republican outside groups, including the Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). They worry Leavitt is unelectable. Why? Her vocal support for Trump’s stolen election claims is one reason. Mowers, meanwhile, accepts the 2020 contest as legitimate.
Voters in Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island pull the lever Tuesday in Democratic and Republican primaries, closing out the parties’ 2022 nominating season and completing the task of choosing general election nominees. Republicans are poised to win a Democratic House majority that rests on just a handful of seats. The battle for the 50-50 Senate is unpredictable, although President Joe Biden’s low job approval ratings and historical trends suggest an edge for the GOP.
For Republicans, primary contests unfolded as a proxy battle between the two dominant wings of the party: the Trump-inspired, and in many instances Trump-endorsed, populists and the conservative pragmatists. (In some primaries, this second group has included candidates who had aligned with the former president but whom he has since spurned because they did not support his unsupported claims that the 2020 election was stolen.)
Several Republicans are vying for the Senate in New Hampshire. But only Bolduc and Morse are considered in contention for the nomination. And, while both profess affiliation with Trump, their contrasting styles offer GOP voters a choice between a populist in the mold of the former president and a traditional politician. After a town hall meeting in Laconia, New Hampshire, on Saturday, Bolduc explained to reporters why he believes his message is resonating with voters.
“They’re hurting; they see our country going in the wrong direction; they feel let down. And it’s not just Democrats. It’s also Republicans. I want to be clear on that,” he said. “It’s both sides of the aisle not doing the right thing and trying to work deals for their own benefit, for their own special interests and their own lobbyists and their own political wealthy elite. And that has to stop.”
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Compare Bolduc’s comments to Morse’s sales pitch, discussed with the Washington Examiner during a campaign stop in Rochester, New Hampshire. Morse has been endorsed by Gov. Chris Sununu.
This primary, he said, is about “my being able to prove that I’ve gotten it done in New Hampshire. We lowered business taxes. We made New Hampshire the envy of New England. We brought in constitutional carry [for firearms]. We protected life in New Hampshire. We banned abortions in the seventh, eighth, and ninth month.” Morse added: “All those things have been done while I’ve been Senate president.”
With the exception of Sununu, Republicans have had difficulty winning statewide elections in New Hampshire this century, last claiming the state’s four Electoral College votes in 2000 and last finishing on top in a Senate race in 2010. But the Republicans who have been successful are the traditional, pragmatic conservatives — like the governor and Morse.
