The president’s choice of Brett Kavanaugh to serve as the next justice on the Supreme Court sets off a months-long confirmation process that will ultimately be decided by a critical group of senators.
In a Senate with 50 voting Republicans and 49 who vote as Democrats, Kavanaugh can be scuttled if just one Republican votes “no,” but can be saved if every “no” from a Republican is met with at least one “yes” by a Democrat.
[Also read: White House sets ’66-day’ goal for confirmation of Supreme Court nominee]
That means every vote matters, especially among a handful of Republicans and Democrats who have the potential to vote with the other party. Here’s who to watch:
Susan Collins, R-Maine
Collins has never voted against a Republican president’s nominee to the Supreme Court, but she has threatened to do so this time if President Trump’s pick could vote to overturn Roe v. Wade, the 1973 decision legalizing abortion.
Collins has served in the Senate since 1997 as a moderate, pro-abortion Republican who has never been afraid to vote against the party. Notably, she voted to confirm Justice Samuel Alito despite his refusal to declare Roe v. Wade settled law.
Late Monday, Collins left the door open by saying she needed to study the nominee.
“Judge Kavanaugh has impressive credentials and extensive experience, having served more than a decade on the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals,” Collins said Monday. “I will conduct a careful, thorough vetting of the President’s nominee to the Supreme Court, as I have done with the five previous Supreme Court Justices whom I have considered. I look forward to Judge Kavanaugh’s public hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee and to questioning him in a meeting in my office.”
Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska
Like Collins, Murkowski is pro-abortion, yet she also voted for Alito in spite of his views on Roe v. Wade.
Murkowski, like Collins, will also pay close attention to the nominee’s views on Obamacare, which likely faces future court challenges. Both Murkowski and Collins were among a trio of GOP senators who blocked a move to repeal Obamacare.
Outside groups are planning to run ads in Alaska and Maine in an effort to pressure both senators to block Trump’s nominee, but they have limited ammunition in part because neither lawmaker is up for re-election this year.
The abortion-rights group NARAL is running ads in the two states and has conducted polling claiming the two lawmakers “would face peril in their upcoming election” if they vote to confirm a nominee who backs overturning Roe v. Wade.
[More: Brett Kavanaugh offers praise of ‘trailblazing’ women as Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski decide fate]
Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D.
Heitkamp is up for re-election in a state that voted for Trump by 36 points. Heitkamp is one of three Democrats who voted to confirm Justice Neil Gorsuch in April 2017.
But Gorsuch was replacing a conservative, while the retiring Anthony Kennedy was considered an important swing vote, and that means Heitkamp will be under much more pressure to vote against the nominee, particularly if Roe v. Wade appears to be threatened and if the support of Collins or Murkowski appears uncertain.
“All that changes for me is that we now have a nominee,” Heitkamp said in a statement Monday. “Now I’ll get to work to thoroughly review and vet his record to provide advice and consent to fill this vacancy.”
Joe Donnelly, D-Ind.
Donnelly also voted for Gorsuch and is up for re-election in November. Trump won Indiana by nearly 20 points, which means Donnelly could again vote for the president’s nominee in an effort to win a second term.
“As I have said, part of my job as senator includes thoroughly considering judicial nominations, including to the Supreme Court,” Donnelly said. “I will take the same approach as I have previously for a Supreme Court vacancy. Following the president’s announcement, I will carefully review and consider the record and qualifications of Judge Brett Kavanaugh.”
Joe Manchin, D-W.Va.
Manchin opposes abortion and has said he can work with President Trump. But he also warned on West Virginia’s Talkline Radio that if Trump selects someone who would overturn Roe v. Wade or repeal Obamacare, “that’s a bigger lift.”
Manchin is running for a second term in the Mountaineer State and is leading in the polls, but Trump carried his state by 42 points in 2016, and the president has earned some of his highest approval ratings there. Manchin voted for Gorsuch.
On Monday, Manchin said his vote will hinge in part on the future of Obamacare, which many believe is headed for the Supreme Court again thanks to a case on pre-existing conditions winding through the courts.
“The Supreme Court will ultimately decide if nearly 800,000 West Virginians with pre-existing conditions will lose their healthcare,” Manchin said. “This decision will directly impact almost 40 percent of my state, so I’m very interested in his position on protecting West Virginians with pre-existing conditions.”
Doug Jones, D-Ala.
Jones wasn’t in the Senate for the Gorsuch confirmation, but he hails from a deep red state that backed Trump by 28 points. He’s up for re-election in 2020 after winning a partial term by beating a significantly flawed GOP candidate.
Jones said prior to Kavanaugh’s announcement that he’s open to voting for a Trump nominee, which already puts him at odds with many Senate Democrats who have pledged to vote against anyone Trump picks.
“I don’t think my role is to rubber stamp for the President, but it’s also not an automatic knee-jerk no, either,” Jones told CNN on Sunday.
