President Trump on Tuesday faces a critical test as Republican voters head to the polls in two races where he delivered key endorsements in Senate primaries that could shape the battle for control of Congress.
In West Virginia, Trump intervened at the eleventh hour to urge Republicans to reject the surging Don Blankenship, a coal baron whose criminal past could blow an otherwise prime pick-up opportunity for the GOP. In Ohio, Trump personally recruited and backed Rep. Jim Renacci, R-Ohio, who has run an underwhelming race against wealthy businessman Mike Gibbons.
The president’s impact on Republican candidates is unmistakable, reshaping the politics of congressional primaries in his populist image. But Trump’s influence in the voting booth is questionable. His clout could be marginalized, and his party weakened in crucial Senate contests heading into the midterm, if voters spurn his direction in Ohio or West Virginia.
“He is a better killer than a hugger,” explained a Republican strategist, who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly about the president.
Trump chased Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., a regular critic of his leadership, into retirement, and was probably a factor in Sen. Bob Corker’s, R-Tenn., decision not to run for re-election. But voters ignored the president in special elections for the Senate in Alabama, and for the House in Pennsylvania, leading to Democratic upset victories where Trump had won overwhelmingly less than two years ago.
Those outcomes revealed the limits of Trump’s power with the same voters who propelled him to office, and the consequences of a White House that has proven largely incapable of managing contested primaries.
“The fever hasn’t broken with Republicans being ANGRY and looking for reasons to vote against his endorsement if they know it’s wrong,” a Republican consultant said in an email exchange with the Washington Examiner.
West Virginia is an urgent problem for the Republicans.
Blankenship two years ago was sent to jail after a federal court found him guilty of conspiracy to avoid mine safety standards in an explosion that left 29 coal miners dead. That could be a deal-breaker for voters in West Virginia, which strongly supports Trump, providing the perfect escape hatch for vulnerable Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va.
Trump, who had stayed out of the primary until Monday despite the danger posed by Blankenship, issued an urgent plea to West Virginia Republicans. He recommended in a morning tweet that they vote for either Rep. Evan Jenkins, R-W.Va., or state attorney general Patrick Morrisey, or risk elevating a candidate who can’t win in the fall.
“Don Blankenship, currently running for Senate, can’t win the General Election in your state…No way!” Trump said in a Twitter post.
Polling was spotty on the eve of the primary; internal surveys suggest Blankenship might hold a small lead. If so, said Republican insiders with West Virginia ties, Trump’s late involvement could move votes. The concern was that Trump moved too late to block Blankenship, who campaigned as Trump’s heir apparent — an outsider businessman under attack by the GOP establishment and the liberal media.
“It will make a difference,” a Republican operative active in the race said. “Whether it’s too little, too late, is the big question.”
Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, practically gloated when asked whether Trump could steer the outcome. “We saw how much influence Trump had in Alabama, maybe he’ll have the same amount of influence in West Virginia.”
Republicans are positioned to pick up Senate seats in the midterm, despite a toxic environment that could cost the GOP control of the House. But that depends on the candidates they nominate. In Indiana, where Republicans on Tuesday will select a challenger to Sen. Joe Donnelly, D-Ind., whoever wins the three-way primary should prove formidable.
But like West Virginia, Ohio is an unknown.
The White House settled on Renacci after state Treasurer Josh Mandel unexpectedly exited the race in December. As Trump’s pick, the congressman has the state GOP machine behind him. Most insiders predict he’ll defeat Gibbons, despite entering the race late and taking a while to find his footing. Yet Gibbons has continued to rack up grassroots endorsements. The wealthy investor has claimed Trump’s mantle, running as an outsider businessman.
Some Republicans warn he could surprise the prognosticators. “The smart money is on Renacci, but the Ohio Republican Party seems awfully nervous. It’s anybody’s race,” said a senior GOP official in Ohio, on condition of anonymity.
The more pressing question is whether Renacci or Gibbons can beat Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio. The gravelly-voiced liberal populist has managed to preserve his standing in a state that has shifted considerably toward Trump.
Renacci and Gibbons, both wealthy businessmen without the president’s unique appeal, might be insufficiently prepared to oust the incumbent, contributing to a loss that could damage Republicans’ chances of padding their 51-49 Senate majority, and result in a political black eye for Trump.
Dave Carney, a GOP strategist, cautioned that the value of presidential endorsements is typically overhyped.
“Presidents provide cover in a primary but rarely do they overcome a bad campaign, tone deaf messages or a flawed candidate. Note [President Barack] Obama’s aggressive support for Hillary Clinton: Zero needle movement,” he said. “Presidents always want their endorsements to matter but in most cases it’s just on the margins. President Trump is no different.”
