Most people with Obamacare plan to keep it even though the government will no longer punish them for going uninsured, according to a new poll from the Kaiser Family Foundation.
The organization’s polling showed that nine in 10 enrollees plan to keep their Obamacare coverage even though congressional Republicans repealed the fine for going uninsured as part of the tax bill that President Trump signed into law in December. Beginning in 2019, people are allowed to be uninsured without facing a penalty of 2.5 percent of income or $695 per person, whichever is higher.
The survey found that the mandate ranked low among reasons why people said they bought their own health insurance in 2018. Among those polled, 34 percent said the mandate was a “major reason” they chose to buy coverage. Reasons that ranked higher: to protect against high medical bills, at 75 percent; for peace of mind, at 66 percent; and because the individual polled or someone in his family had health needs that required ongoing medical care, at 41 percent.
Democrats warned as Republicans were seeking to undo the individual mandate penalty that millions of people would choose to go uninsured, which would cause prices of premiums to rise and put the cost of coverage out of reach for people with pre-existing illnesses who do not receive government assistance.
But there is widespread disagreement about the impact of the mandate on coverage. The Congressional Budget Office had projected 13 million more people would become uninsured in a decade, but it is revisiting its analysis. Another nonpartisan government analysis, from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Office of the Actuary, pegged the estimate at 4 million.
Both sides of the Obamacare debate have argued about whether the individual mandate had the desired impact of getting younger, healthier people who would otherwise choose to go uninsured to buy coverage. Even supporters at times have said it should have been more expensive for people to go uninsured or that the law contained too many exemptions.
Health insurers have said that without the fine they will need to raise premium prices by an average of 10 percent, an increase that will be felt by people who don’t receive government subsidies to offset costs.
Even though the price for mid-level plans rose in 2018, however, insurance companies structured their plans so they would affect fewer customers by shifting additional costs onto the federal government and only onto certain plans. That is reflected somewhat in the polling: 57 percent of participants reported that the costs of their premiums changed little for them this year or even fell.
Obamacare customers buy health insurance on their own because they don’t receive it through work or through a government program, such as Medicare. People who make less than $48,240 in gross income qualify for government help under the law.
The survey was conducted through phone interviews with 2,534 participants during February and March.
