Republicans find themselves well-positioned less than a year out from the midterm elections, but former President Donald Trump casts a long shadow over a party otherwise poised for big gains.
Trump has joined other Republicans in assailing the policies of President Joe Biden and calling for a return to his. But he has also directed a lot of fire at members of his own party.
In a statement Wednesday, Trump relitigated his disagreement with former Vice President Mike Pence over last year’s presidential election. “Good man,” he said of Pence, “but big mistake on not recognizing the massive voter fraud and irregularities.”
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Trump similarly went after George Gov. Brian Kemp, even endorsing a Republican challenger to the battleground state leader who could otherwise face a rematch with 2018 Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams. “Kemp has been a very weak Governor — the liberals and RINOs have run all over him on Election Integrity, and more,” Trump said in another statement. “Most importantly, he can’t win because the MAGA base — which is enormous — will never vote for him.”
The former president also attacked the 19 Republican senators who voted for the bipartisan infrastructure bill Biden signed into law, calling it an “Unfrastructure Plan, which is only 11% Infrastructure.” He faulted Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell, “the Broken Old Crow,” for a legislative strategy on this and the debt ceiling that gave Democrats time to “get their act together.”
“Just like McConnell blew two Senate seats in Georgia, and wouldn’t fight the Rigged Presidential Election, he gave this one away also,” Trump said. “USE THE DEBT CEILING TO WIN, AND MEAN IT THIS TIME!” (Emphasis in the original.)
Loyalty to Trump is set to become a major issue in next year’s Republican primaries. “The problems in the 2020 election started long before any votes were cast,” said former Sen. David Perdue, who is now running for Georgia’s gubernatorial nomination with Trump’s blessing, in a statement. “They started when Brian Kemp caved to Stacey Abrams and the Democrats, giving them control of our elections.”
Rep. Liz Cheney has lost her GOP leadership position, been rebuked by the Wyoming Republican Party, and could lose her primary because she voted for Trump’s second impeachment and has continued to frequently criticize him. Trump has been equally offhand with her. “To look at her is to despise her,” he said of the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, a longtime Republican icon, in October.
Democrats have also tried to keep the spotlight shining on Trump. Biden mentions his predecessor regularly and, with one recent exception, unfavorably. House Democrats are leading an investigation into the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, leading to legal battles with Trump associates such as former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows and former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon.
This strategy may not work. Democrats tried mightily to make Trump an issue in the race for governor of Virginia this year. Trump flirted with campaigning in the state, which he lost to Biden by 10 points. Republican Glenn Youngkin won anyway, leading a GOP sweep of the statewide elected offices.
Inflation, inconsistent jobs reports despite the economic reopening, supply chain bottlenecks ahead of the holidays, a migration surge at the southern border, rising crime, unresponsive public school bureaucracies, “wokeness,” and slow legislative progress have all driven the Democrats’ numbers downward, while issues such as COVID management, which briefly united the country when the vaccines first came out, are now polarizing.
Biden’s job approval rating remains nearly 10 points underwater in the RealClearPolitics polling average. Democrats managed no better than a tie with Republicans in the generic congressional ballot among Hispanic voters, according to a Wall Street Journal poll. Democrats are defending tiny majorities that don’t require a 1994- or 2010-style red wave in order to be washed away.
Still, Republican gains have come in part because the country is looking forward and judging Biden on his own merits rather than in contrast with his 2020 general election opponent. This makes some party operatives nervous about Trump’s tendency to look backward, especially when engaging in party infighting.
McConnell told the Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council Summit this week what his advice to prospective GOP Senate candidates would be. “I’d be talking about what this administration is doing and how do you feel about it — because the American people are looking to the future.”
There is also concern that Trump has chosen to play in states such as Georgia, where the governorship and a Senate seat are up for grabs — and where the former president lost, however narrowly, last year. Trump continues to dispute those results.
Trump has nevertheless benefited from some buyer’s remorse about Biden, even after Jan. 6. He trails Biden among Hispanics by a single point in the Wall Street Journal poll. Hispanic men favor the former president over the current one by 23 points.
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All this gives Trump little incentive to focus on his golf game rather than politics.
“Vladimir Putin looks at our pathetic surrender in Afghanistan, leaving behind dead Soldiers, American citizens, and $85 billion worth of Military equipment. He then looks at Biden,” Trump said in one of his statements actually targeting Democrats. “He is not worried!” Neither is Trump.
