Women who don’t like President Trump are leading a blue wave in Northern Virginia that’s poised to strip a Republican champion of the #MeToo movement of her seat, and hand it to a Democrat.
Two-term Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock should have a lock on the female vote in her white-collar district. Late last year, Comstock joined forces with a Democrat, Rep. Jackie Speier of California, to call out House lawmakers for sexual harassment against women.
And just a few months ago, they teamed up again to propose a bill making it a crime for federal law enforcement officers to claim a prisoner in their charge consented to a sexual encounter.
But instead, women are flocking to her opponent, Jennifer Wexton, even though the two represent more moderate views within their own parties.
All public polling gives Wexton, a state senator, a healthy lead over Comstock, who served in the Virginia House of Delegates and as a senior aide to her predecessor, Rep. Frank Wolf, before winning his seat in 2014.
Wolf kept the seat in GOP territory for 17 terms, but women in the affluent district, which includes McLean, Va., and Loudoun County, may hand it to Democrats.
“We call it the blue wave, but in many ways, it is actually a pink wave,” Rachel Bitecofer, Assistant Director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University.
A recent Wason Center poll found Wexton leading Comstock 51 percent to 44 percent, and a closer look at the data shows women are big part of the reason Wexton is leading.
Wexton leads Comstock by a whopping 19 percent among female voters who declare themselves “committed” to showing up at the polls on Nov. 6.
Bitecofer and other polling analysts blame Trump, whose message has not resonated with college-educated women like the ones who saturate the Northern Virginia district. The numbers mirror notational polling that shows suburban woman have increased their support for Democrats since Trump took office.
A late September poll by USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times found Democrats won the support of suburban women over Republicans 61 percent to 35 percent.
“Comstock is suffering from the same issues with women that other Republicans are,” Bitecofer told the Washington Examiner. “The normal gender gap that benefits Democrats among women has been heightened in the post-Trump era.”
Trump has moved to absolve himself of November losses, tweeting this week that he won’t be responsible if Democrats reclaim the majority.
But Trump is a major reason Comstock lost a critical endorsement from her district’s hometown paper, the Washington Post. The Post took the unusual step of endorsing Comstock in 2016 despite her GOP party affiliation after she refused to endorse Trump.
But this year, they dumped her for Wexton, largely because of Trump. The Post specifically blames Comstock for voting for Trump’s agenda as a House Republican lawmaker.
“On critical issues, she has been a reliable, often unquestioning foot soldier in the president’s ranks of Republican loyalists,” the editorial writers proclaimed on Oct. 17.
The accusation frustrates Comstock, who is considered among the most moderate and bipartisan of GOP lawmakers in the House.
In an interview with the Washington Examiner, Comstock pointed out the “scorecard” used to claim 98 percent allegiance to the Trump agenda is made up mostly of bills with bipartisan support, as well as measures to fund the government, deport illegal immigrant gang members, provide funding to fight the opioid crisis and to fund measures to prevent school gun violence.
The scorecard also includes the massive restructuring of the tax code and across-the-board tax cuts for individuals and businesses.
“I’m about leadership and working together with people and getting things done,” Comstock told the Washington Examiner. “My opponent is one who is going to be in lockstep with Nancy Pelosi. She literally said she is going to represent the resistance.”
Wexton has capitalized on the anti-Trump wave in the 10th Congressional District. She launched her campaign by telling women voters, “the resistance starts now.”
Comstock, however, has hardly been a Trump cheerleader. She’s avoided praising the president and has worked to set herself apart from the president on issues that are important to women.
For example, she successfully sponsored a bill aimed at fighting sexual harassment in Congress.
But even without a Trump presidency, the 10th District is growing more difficult for Republicans to win thanks to rapidly-shifting demographics.
The surging Northern Virginia population includes more young people and minorities who tend to favor Democrats. It’s also among the most college-educated.
“In fact, it is one of the highest-educated districts in the country,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, told the Washington Examiner. “The big split we find between men and women have to do with women who hold a college degree — which this district has a lot of. Which means that Comstock would probably be losing to a male Democrat in this environment.”
Wexton spokesman Aaron Fritschner said the anti-Trump, female vote remains the top reason Democrats are poised to claim the long-held GOP seat. “If I had to sum up in just one word what’s happening in the 10th District, the word would be women,” Fritschner said.
