President Joe Biden may soon get to test the theory that Democrats are counting on in the midterm elections and beyond: that passing his economic agenda will build his poll numbers back better.
That was Biden’s response to Democratic electoral setbacks last week, which appeared to help the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill finally get through the House.
“Well, I think we should produce for the American people,” Biden said at the White House in response to a reporter’s question about the election results, saying more than once Democrats can improve their fortunes “if they pass my legislation.”
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Democrats have since passed the infrastructure bill with the help of 19 Republicans in the Senate and 13 Republicans in the House. The nearly $2 trillion partisan reconciliation bill will prove a heavier lift, especially since they can’t lose a single Democratic senator.
“That’s our focus: to make sure that we continue to push the president’s economic policies,” Karine Jean-Pierre, White House principal deputy press secretary, told reporters Monday. “Polls are all over the map, and that’s not going to be our focus right now.”
Before the House infrastructure vote, Biden explicitly tied the fate of the Democrats’ majorities and his own presidency to the two bills that make up the bulk of his economic agenda.
He said, “Passing these bills will say clearly to the American people, ‘We hear your voices. We’re going to invest in your hopes, helping secure a brighter future for yourself and your families, and make sure America wins the future in the process.'”
Democrats had better hope enacting liberal policy priorities will help the president and his party rebound. A Suffolk University/USA Today poll found that Biden had a 38% job approval rating, with 59% disapproving. Vice President Kamala Harris, the likeliest Democratic nominee if the nearly 79-year-old Biden does not run for reelection in 2024, had an approval rating of just 28%.
These poor numbers are dragging the whole party down. Republicans led Democrats in the generic congressional ballot in the same poll, 46% to 38%. Before Republicans won in Virginia and came tantalizingly close in New Jersey, both blue states, Democrats were already seen as being at risk of losing their razor-thin congressional majorities.
With a 222-212 majority in the House and a 50-50 Senate organized by Democrats due solely to Harris’s tiebreaking vote, Republicans don’t need to have a wave election like 1994 or 2010 to win back the majorities. A small net gain would be sufficient.
Passing legislation may improve the morale of rank-and-file Democratic voters, leading to improved turnout. But that has only been part of their problem. Democrats actually lost House seats last year even as Biden won 81 million votes nationally. Republicans are now highly motivated — and independents are trending away from the Democrats.
High spending and looser immigration policies, for example, could only further inflame Republicans and alienate independents ahead of the midterm elections. The perception that the Democratic Party has become too left-wing has also become a problem for a subset of its traditional voters, with some erosion evident among Hispanics, Asian Americans, and even black men.
The passage of the nearly $2 trillion American Rescue Plan, often cited as a reason for Democratic optimism about their legislative abilities, has not prevented the decline in their and Biden’s poll numbers. The enactment of Obamacare when Biden was vice president did not save Democratic congressional majorities or even spare the centrists who voted against it. Republicans gained 63 House seats to wrest the speaker’s gavel from Nancy Pelosi.
The Democrats’ political problems could make the surviving centrists dig in and vote against the bill, which was not as great of a risk with infrastructure. But liberals will feel double-crossed if the reconciliation bill stalls after they mostly voted for infrastructure in the House.
A poll taken in September found Biden had just a 30% approval rating in West Virginia, the home state of Sen. Joe Manchin, the centrist whose vote will prove decisive. Manchin’s approval ran 12 points ahead of the president’s. Former President Donald Trump twice carried West Virginia by about 40 points and retained a 55% approval rating.
Democrats will also have limited opportunities to continue legislating. Biden and party leaders will want to avoid forcing vulnerable lawmakers to take tough votes in an election year. The year is winding down, and the holidays are fast approaching — in addition to deadlines for must-pass legislation such as the debt ceiling extension.
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Biden is planning a campaign-style tour to push planned infrastructure projects and possibly whip up enthusiasm for the Democratic bill. “It’s going to be a tough fight,” Biden said after a Monday event. “It ain’t over yet, as they say, as the old expression goes. But I feel good, and I think people are realizing … it’s important to get it done.”
Surveying the wreckage of last week’s elections, this is the only fix the White House sees.
