It’s January 2019 and President Trump is entering his third year in office. Nancy Pelosi is speaker of the House again and one of the first items on the agenda is oversight.
The California Democrat is leading a large House Democratic caucus newly ascendant to the majority after nearly a decade in the wilderness. They want answers. They want to know what Education Secretary Betsy DeVos is doing to public schools, they want to know what Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke is doing to public lands, they want to know how EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt is spending taxpayer dollars. And most of all, they want to see Trump’s tax returns.
That’s just the beginning. Democrats right now are in a strong position to retake the House in November, and if they succeed, the most effective tool they’ll have to provide a check on Trump is oversight. The Senate is unlikely to flip as Democrats are defending 10 senators in states that Trump won in 2016. In a world where the House is under their control but the Senate and White House are not, there are limits to what the left side of the aisle can accomplish.
[Related: Democrats push anti-corruption, anti-Trump message ahead of midterms]
Democratic leaders Pelosi and Sen. Chuck Schumer have shown that they are willing to strike deals with Trump and that likely won’t change even if Pelosi gets to wield the speaker’s gavel a second time. There will be opportunities to woo the president, who is easily influenced and is willing to talk to anyone who promises legislative wins. With a Democratic House, Trump’s agenda won’t sail through, and could be outright rejected if the president doesn’t bow to negotiations. But Pelosi and Schumer, so far, say they will work with Trump rather than obstruct his every move.
Democrats have made their agenda known through their Better Deal blueprint. They want a sweeping infrastructure package similar in price to Trump’s $1.5 trillion proposal. They want to boost the minimum wage, lower the price of prescription drugs, fix the Affordable Care Act, pass a gun control package, and provide a pathway to citizenship for so-called Dreamers. The newly unveiled second part of their Better Deal platform focuses on Washington corruption. Separately, a number of them want to scrap the top-down legislating that’s dominated Congress for the past decade.
In conversations with more than 30 House Democrats representing districts across the country, many listed infrastructure, gun control and healthcare at the top of their legislative wish lists, but there was little consensus on the execution. Do they push a gas tax to pay for a trillion-dollar infrastructure bill that includes rural broadband? Do they reinstate the individual mandate or ditch it and go for Medicare-for-all?
They do agree on one thing: As the majority party they want to be a check on Trump and exert their status as an equal branch. Passing legislation out of the House will only go so far with a Republican Senate and White House. But on day one of their new majority, Democrats would have unilateral authority to subpoena Trump’s entire administration. And they intend to use it.
‘You bet we’re going to have those hearings’
Rep. Raul Grijalva wants to know what’s driving Zinke’s policy changes. Zinke, like Pruitt, is shrouded in scandal including a misuse of taxpayer money on pricey travel and failure to disclose possible conflicts of interest. Grijalva would become chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee if Democrats controlled the chamber.
[Trey Gowdy wants answers from Ryan Zinke on $139,000 door]
The Arizona Democrat has requested more than 100 documents, many from the Interior Department, but in the minority he has little power to demand they be turned over. As chairman he would “hold this administration accountable” and “if necessary subpoena that information and begin to put checks and balances” on the department agencies he oversees. He knows his fellow Democratic chairmen will do the same.
“With DeVos in education, what are you doing? Seriously, what are you doing? Seriously, we don’t know,” Grijalva said. “At the very minimum if we’re in the majority, we can guarantee [voters] that we’re a check and balance.”
Rep. Bill Pascrell of New Jersey “definitely” wants more oversight.
“The executive branch has gone crazy,” Pascrell said, “and is moving towards Moscow.”
Pascrell has been on a mission to get Trump’s tax returns since the president took office. That effort will take on a new life if Democrats are in power. Trump’s taxes could alone reveal potential conflicts of interest and financial dealings with foreign entities. Though achieving the release of an individual’s tax returns is incredibly difficult, Democrats will launch a new hunt for them.
“I would hope that the first week, Ways and Means will vote to release Trump’s taxes,” said Rep. Peter DeFazio, D-Ore.
The House Ways and Means Committee has the ability to request that the Treasury Department allow committee members to review Trump’s tax documents in a closed session and consider their public release. Democrats on the committee have called on Republicans to do this to no avail.
“Both Democrats and Republicans have not been responsible in terms of demanding to see this president’s tax returns,” said Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., who would head the Financial Services Committee. “No way should he have been allowed to get away without showing his tax returns for this long. The fact that he initiated and got passed a tax reform bill without even revealing his own taxes is outrageous.”
With subpoena power, Waters could get an answer that Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has yet to provide: “Have you ever directed, or has any other Trump administration official, Trump campaign official or Trump family member called on you to direct U.S. Treasury officials or staff members to obscure, destroy, or withhold information implicating the President, Trump campaign officials, Trump family members or his associates?”
The lines of inquiry Democrats could pursue are numerous. To start, they would likely launch their own investigation into Russian meddling and possible collusion between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin. House Democrats have decried the investigation by the House Intelligence Committee, which unlike the Senate probe, devolved into a partisan affair.
“Republicans aren’t going to be in the majority forever and so we need to lay down a marker and say what it is that we need to do and one of them is this whole investigation into what happened with Russia in 2016,” said Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, who sits on the House Oversight Committee.
And if the tax returns remain elusive, Democrats have other ways of getting their hands on Trump’s finances to unearth potential evidence of conflicts of interests. Investigations will be launched into Trump’s payments to porn star Stormy Daniels, hearings will be held concerning potential violations of the Constitution’s emoluments clause, and subpoenas will start flying toward every Cabinet secretary who could provide insight into Trump’s finances.
“It is scandalous that the Republicans want to see and hear no evil so we’re not looking at security clearances, we’re not looking at conflicts of interest,” said Rep. Gerry Connolly, D-Va., who sits on the House Oversight Committee. “We’re not looking at travel and expense abuse by Cabinet secretaries, you notice I didn’t mention the I-word at all.”
Connolly omitted impeachment because he wants special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation to run its course. Democrats will have plenty to do regarding Trump’s Cabinet, including hauling them before the committees to explain themselves, Connolly said.
“Republicans are making a big mistake not doing that because this is all going to be pent-up frustration for Democrats so that when we do take over you bet we’re going to have those hearings,” he said.
As for the payment to Daniels by Trump’s lawyer Michael Cohen in exchange for silence weeks before the election, Connolly said, “so much is wrong with that I don’t know where to begin.” A recent financial disclosure by Trump confirmed a six-figure repayment was made to Cohen.
“It’s wrong and I’m going to call it out and it’s worthy of an investigation,” Connolly said. “That’s reprehensible behavior and you tried to hide it with hush money. I’m sorry but it’s on the list of things that has to be looked at because it’s not about who you slept with — though it is — but it’s about hush money being paid and it absolutely constitutes an illegal campaign contribution.”
In a Monday press conference, Pelosi and Schumer announced an anti-corruption package that will be central to their 2018 messaging. It would tighten laws around lobbying disclosures, and crack down on the apparent pay-to-play culture Trump’s personal lawyer Michael Cohen and members of Trump’s Cabinet have reportedly engaged in.
“The American people are confronted with one of the most compromised, corrupt, administrations in history,” Pelosi said.
“We’re going to close the [Michael] Cohen loophole so the president’s cronies can’t sell access to the highest bidder,” Schumer added, referring to the president’s personal lawyer who was paid millions by companies seeking access to Trump during the campaign. Cohen never registered as a lobbyist.
As Democrats call hearings, and attempt to force Trump’s financial dealings into the light, they’ll also be pursuing near-impossible legislative wins.
The $1 trillion infrastructure question
“The winning message is an economic agenda,” Pelosi said at a Politico breakfast this month. “Certainly would contain a big infrastructure bill from the start.”
The Better Deal released by Democrats last year details a “a bold, comprehensive plan” to make a $1 trillion federal investment into rebuilding the nation’s infrastructure and transportation systems. Roughly $40 billion of it would go to providing “broadband for every single American regardless of where they live and what their income is,” said Rep. Anna Eshoo, D-Calif.
“Let airports raise passenger facility charges and get rebuilt, spend the harbor maintenance tax on harbor maintenance, and let’s make the trust fund whole,” said DeFazio, who would become the chairman of the House Transportation Committee under a Democratic majority.
Some funding ideas floating among House Democrats include infrastructure bonds and a gas tax increase that’s caught up with inflation. Trump has said he supports the latter.
Gun control
Rep. David Cicilline’s first order of business if Democrats win the majority is gun control. After the killing of 17 people at a high school in Parkland, Fla., calls for gun control measures reached new heights. Students demonstrated in walkouts across the country, and in March thousands descended on Washington, D.C.
“There’s tremendous consensus within the Democratic caucus that we should move forward on a number of commonsense gun safety proposals,” said Cicilline, D-R.I. “There are dozens of bills pending in the Congress introduced by Democrats that range from improving the background check system to banning bump stocks to an assault weapons ban, to better measures to prevent people with serious mental illness accessing firearms.”
After every mass shooting since Columbine, Rep. Jan Schakowsky has thought, “this is it,” Congress is going to do something.
“There is a new element now after the Florida situation,” the Illinois Democrat said. “It is important now to talk about and hopefully pass a ban on weapons of war, on all types of assault weapons.
“No question that it will be on the agenda,” she added.
Rep. Jamie Raskin said the legislation “is ready to go” and a gun control package would “be a really obvious thing to start with” if Democrats are in charge.
“We need to close the Internet loophole, we need to close the gun show loophole, we need to close the 7-11 parking lot private sale loophole,” said the Maryland Democrat. “That would be like a universally popular commonsense way to begin a gun violence package.”
Pelosi supports tackling gun safety quickly if Democrats win, and the same goes for protecting Dreamers.
“We’d be hard put to call on the speaker to do it, and then when we win not do it,” she said.
Comprehensive immigration reform
Though moderate House Republicans in tough re-election races are pressuring leadership to take up legislation to help Dreamers before November, the chance of a bill reaching Trump’s desk is slim.
Providing citizenship for recipients of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program is high on Democrats’ to-do list.
“If a DACA bill comes to the floor, I guarantee you, I guarantee you, it will pass,” said Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, D-Mo. “Will some people be mumblin’ and grumblin’ under their breath? Yes, but it’s gonna pass.”
Others, such as Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., think the first item should be larger. A DACA fix could be wrapped up in “comprehensive immigration reform to see where [Trump] stands,” Gallego said.
It’s not so far-fetched, according to Rep. Filemon Vela, D-Texas, because “the president changes his mind on so many things.”
“If we controlled the House and brought forward a good immigration package he might actually go for it,” he said.
Jobs, jobs, jobs
Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., had one answer for what Democrats need to address.
“The economy, the economy, the economy,” he said.
“We have to continue to do something on wage stagnation and addressing the underemployment that continues to plague many parts of the country,” Jeffries said. At the end of the day our economy is in transition in part because of the rise of automation and the fact that so many Americans have been displaced from good-paying jobs.”
Part of that includes reversing elements of the $1.5 trillion GOP tax plan that gives corporations a big permanent tax cut, and temporary cuts for individuals. It also repealed the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate.
Democrats will try to “re-pivot” the plan “toward the middle class by rescinding or repealing provisions that help the top one percent,” Connolly said.
The bill needs a number of technical corrections that Republicans are trying to pass before the midterms, but Democrats are hoping to either win concessions or block the effort.
And Pelosi is eyeing a bump to the minimum wage.
“I’m for the Fight for 15 to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour,” Pelosi said. When Democrats unveiled their Six for 06 agenda prior to the 2006 midterm, they proposed raising the minimum wage and they got it done in 2007.
“It’s long overdue that we do that again,” she said.
Rep. Rosa DeLauro, D-Conn., wants to add to the Fight for $15. “There’s paycheck fairness, there is paid sick days, paid family leave,” she said.
Healthcare
On the future of the Affordable Care Act, Democrats agree it needs fixing, but not on how to do it.
“Reforming the ACA, we know what to do, we know it isn’t working,” Eshoo said. “But we also know that without the promise of health insurance to everyone in our country that there are too many people that are left in a ditch.”
For Gallego that means “dropping the Medicare eligibility to 55.”
“It’s not as good as Medicare for all, but it’s something I think would be extremely popular especially among people Donald Trump would consider his base,” Gallego said.
But Republicans wouldn’t go for it and a Senate under Republican control wouldn’t touch it.
Other progressive Democrats such as outgoing Rep. Beto O’Rourke of Texas want to see a different overhaul.
“The goal has to be universal healthcare, universal healthcare meaning everybody in this country can see a provider, or afford their medication, be able to visit a therapist,” said O’Rourke, who is challenging Republican Ted Cruz for his Senate seat.
But for every O’Rourke there’s another Democrat who prefers a single-payer system. And then there are Democrats such as Rep. Cheri Bustos, who hasn’t signed off on either universal or single-payer healthcare.
“Do I want everyone to have healthcare? Yes I do,” the Illinois Democrat said. “How do we get there, there’s a lot of different ways.”
But making healthcare affordable and accessible to everyone is “has to be a high priority,” she said.
Internal reforms
If predictions of a blue wave come true, and Democrats flip more than 40 seats, Pelosi will likely be elected speaker. Even as a growing number of Democratic candidates criticize her, many are leaving themselves wiggle room to vote for her if they’re elected.
But current members increasingly are eyeing institutional reforms as a way to change House dynamics. If the Pelosi defectors can’t oust her, the next best thing for them is to weaken her grip on the caucus.
“The most important thing isn’t anything we pass right out of the gate, the most important thing is we give Democrats on the committee the opportunity to write the legislation and we empower the chairman or the chairwoman to get the bills out of committee,” said Rep. Kurt Schrader, D-Ore. “So no more will there be four people controlling the chamber. There will be 435 folks getting a shot.”
Schrader said Pelosi should not be able to appoint additional Steering Committee members, spots that are coveted for their influence over the legislative agenda.
California Rep. Scott Peters wants the rule changes made right away “so that it’s not just the speaker that can put something on the floor” and a smaller group of members “can force a vote.”
Even without a rule change, a minority of Democrats are expected to force a vote on impeachment if they control the chamber, defying Pelosi.
Impeachment
Democratic leaders have told the rank-and-file to quiet down on impeachment chatter. Pushing for such a vote, Pelosi has said, is “divisive.” Talk about it in your district all you want, Pelosi advised members, just keep it off the House floor.
[Opinion: Byron York: Democrats and the Trump impeachment trap]
The top two agitators for impeachment in the House — Reps. Al Green and Steve Cohen — wouldn’t list their top priorities when asked by the Washington Examiner. Still, Green appears poised to push the issue if Democrats win control, attacking his own leader last week. Green accused Pelosi of “trivializing [Trump’s] bigotry” by avoiding talk of impeachment.
But Pelosi’s not alone in her rejection of impeachment. House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, D-Md., backs Pelosi on the issue. Connolly called it a “last resort” that needs to “be part of a process.”
“You can’t decide to play jury, judge and executioner,” he said.
Rep. John Yarmuth, D-Ky. signed onto articles of impeachment introduced by Cohen, but he doesn’t think there should be a vote and you won’t hear him calling for one.
Impeachment would be the easy way out for Republicans, according to Raskin of Maryland.
“We need to impeach the entire Republican Party,” Raskin said. “We need to impeach their whole way of thinking because it’s not just about Donald Trump and Mike Pence, you have a party of enablers now.”
Power has a way of changing things. Pelosi and a majority of Democrats don’t support impeaching Trump right now, but a lot can change, and quickly.
“In politics you can have an 100-year sea change in 20 minutes,” said Eshoo of California.
Shepherding a trillion dollar infrastructure package through the House, let alone gun control and DACA, will be a feat. And when that’s done, there’s no guarantee the Senate — which by current metrics is expected to stay in Republican hands — will take them up.
That leaves oversight. Though Democrats don’t want Russia, emoluments, Stormy Daniels, or Trump’s tax returns to dominate on the campaign trail in the coming months, they are preparing for the day they have subpoena power.
“We’re making a record by requesting everything that we would come to request,” said Raskin, who sits on the House Judiciary and Oversight committees. “We’re not losing any of the many inquiries which we think should be taking place.”
New York Rep. Jerry Nadler, newly elected to the top Democratic post on the House Judiciary Committee, would become the chairman if the House flipped. Nadler declined to comment for this story, but there’s been a noticeable uptick in the number of press conferences, letters and requested documents made by Judiciary Democrats since he’s taken over.
“Jerry’s definitely not letting any abuse of power or movement towards obstruction of justice go unremarked,” Raskin said. “He’s keeping a scrupulous record of everything that’s happening. That record will be important as the new agenda unfolds if we do our job right in November.”