2020 Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden could be in trouble now that the general elections, only six weeks away, have become less of a referendum on President Trump and more about the Supreme Court.
The White House contest between Biden and Trump to date has largely relitigated the president’s character and record managing the coronavirus pandemic. Yet even as COVID-19 cases tick up as the weather cools down, candidates and voters have been energized by the prospect of an open Supreme Court seat.
Political maneuvering over the seat vacated by the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in the hope of reshaping the country’s highest court with a 6-3 conservative majority could help Republicans, according to GOP strategist Brad Todd.
“Democrats were already at max turnout,” he told the Washington Examiner.
Anti-Trump sentiment has incentivized Democrats to wait in long lines so they can cast their ballot in early-voting states such as Virginia.
“This may make a difference in Republican enthusiasm,” Todd said.
For GOP strategist Duf Sundheim, another Supreme Court justice could rally Catholic and evangelical voters around Trump, particularly since he’s committed to choosing a woman, “showing respect” to Ginsburg.
Although the Supreme Court could boost Biden among suburban women who have been put off by his disregard for their public safety concerns, the preoccupation with the outbreak had aided the two-term vice president because “it goes to core competence,” Sundheim explained.
Any Biden bounce with women may be short-lived, though.
While the Supreme Court has dominated national news headlines, Sundheim said voters were likely to be persuaded by developments closer to the elections and the debates. Sundheim thought voters, too, were desensitized to Supreme Court politics given the current maelstrom of the pandemic, the related economic downturn, and the police brutality and racial injustice protests.
“This is the issue of the day. Yes, it shakes things up a little bit, but to me, it’s going to be events, and it’s going to be the debates,” he said of the election outcomes.
Sundheim, referring to Supreme Court Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh, added, “The Democrats so mishandled Gorsuch, so mishandled Kavanaugh. I mean, why is this going to be any different?”
As Nov. 3 nears, the race is reminiscent of the 2016 and 2018 cycles when centrist Republicans looked beyond Trump’s rhetoric and behavior to vote for him because he promised to stack the federal benches with conservative judges.
Yet with ballots already cast, there are complicated political calculations.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell prevented former President Barack Obama from appointing Judge Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court in 2016 because it was an election year. But he argues 2020 can be differentiated because the White House and the Senate are held by the same party.
McConnell could schedule confirmation hearings and votes before the elections, potentially angering the public and risking the Senate. He could also wait until the lame-duck session or defer the process until after the inauguration, yet Trump could be booted from office by then.
Democratic strategist Jon Reinish predicted the Supreme Court could exacerbate what he described as Trump and McConnell’s drag on some tickets.
“It has an effect on the bases of each party for the presidential, has an effect on the center, I think, the very most in Senate races,” Reinish said.
He continued, “For someone whose vote is in play, who really values the idea of fairness, the idea that Mitch McConnell and many of his cohorts in the Republican conference are breaking their own rule and doing so with no explanation aside from partisanship, really, really turns people off.”
In terms of the White House, Reinish said the Supreme Court could motivate “younger voters, progressive voters, diverse voters, maybe even supporters of Bernie Sanders” because top pick Judge Amy Coney Barrett is only 48 and could make decisions relevant to their lives for years to come. Reinish’s comments come after Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and liberal firebrand New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Sunday night called a joint press conference.
He encouraged Biden to keep talking about the Obamacare case due to be heard by the Supreme Court on Nov. 10 and how election results could wind up in front of the justices.
“This taking place in the run-up to this election puts the issues, including many of the ones that Democratic voters care about the most, right on the front burner,” he said. “It really crystallizes the full picture of this presidential election so it’s not just the fact that Trump is going to very likely try to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg with her polar opposite, it also puts front and center why a Democratic Senate is so absolutely critical.”
