Republicans are cautiously optimistic that the looming fight to fill the Supreme Court vacancy created by Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death will benefit President Trump’s reelection chances.
Trump is expected to nominate Ginsburg’s successor later this week, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, has vowed to press forward with a vote despite furious Democratic opposition. Trump has publicly indicated that five women are under consideration.
“It’s hard to see how this doesn’t help Republicans politically. The Supreme Court fight reframes the election in a way that’s helpful for President Trump,” said GOP strategist Alex Conant. “Rather than focusing on his tweets and handling of COVID, many voters will now focus on the Supreme Court.”
A Pew poll released the month before Ginsburg’s death found that Supreme Court appointments were a top-three issue for registered voters nationally, just ahead of the coronavirus. Four years ago, the vacancy created by the death of Antonin Scalia was a winning issue for Trump.
Exit polls from 2016 showed that most voters who listed the Supreme Court as a top concern went for Trump. His vow to replace Scalia with a proven conservative, complete with a list of potential nominees to back it up, helped consolidate his support among key Republican voting blocs. This includes white evangelicals, who gave Trump 81% of their votes. The Brett Kavanaugh nomination fight helped red-state Republican Senate candidates in the 2018 midterm elections, expanding the GOP’s majority in the upper chamber.
Trump has once again released a list of prospective Supreme Court justices, though he has far greater credibility among social conservatives than when he first ran. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has said he will not tip his hand as to whom he would nominate to fill Ginsburg’s seat or any other vacancy that might arise if he is elected.
“Trump is having some problems with white seniors and evangelicals, and this gives him the opportunity to play to those voters. Keep in mind that 25% of Trump’s voters in 2016 said the court was their major reason for voting for him,” said Republican strategist Jim Dornan. “And with this issue sucking all of the air out of the room between now and Election Day, it will be first and foremost on the minds of those voters who care the most about this issue.”
“The Left, on the other hand, was already fired up to beat Trump, but enthusiasm for Biden hasn’t been all that great,” Dornan continued. “Without any guidance from Biden’s campaign on who he would pick or what’s at stake, there’s not a lot of reason that that enthusiasm would increase. This could change if the Biden campaign can turn on a dime, but I really haven’t seen them be able do that to this point.”
Conservatives are gearing up for a fight, with the Judicial Crisis Network already launching a $2.2 million ad blitz to support Trump’s decision to put forward a nominee. “President Trump will soon pick a strong nominee, and the Senate should act quickly to confirm her,” said Carrie Severino, the group’s president, in a statement. “Justice Ginsburg was confirmed in 42 days. Justice O’Connor in 33. They both received overwhelming bipartisan support. There is no reason Judge Amy Coney Barrett or Judge Barbara Lagoa could not be confirmed before the election.”
Democrats are outraged that Trump will try to nominate a Ginsburg replacement so close to the election after Senate Republicans blocked Merrick Garland, Barack Obama’s nominee to replace Scalia, for almost a year. They believe their voters will be motivated to see a liberal succeed Ginsburg, whom they revered as a feminist icon. But Republican operatives believe even that passion could work to Trump’s benefit if Democrats champion court-packing legislation or a new impeachment inquiry to derail a conservative court majority. Some rank-and-file liberals may even engage in civil unrest.
“The fact that Trump is going to introduce the nominee at a later time allows the country to focus on mourning Justice Ginsburg appropriately and also gives him the opportunity to create and prolong the momentum of news coverage over who that person will be going forward,” said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean.
