The Trump administration’s response to the fallout from Hurricane Florence will test the president’s effectiveness in response to national crises ahead of the midterm elections, multiple GOP strategists told the Washington Examiner.
Hurricane Florence is expected to make landfall on the east coast between Friday morning and Saturday afternoon, pummeling North and South Carolina, as well as some surrounding states, with torrential rains and heavy winds. FEMA administrator Brock Long told reporters Thursday morning that Americans can expect Florence to cause as much destruction as Hurricanes Hugo and Floyd, which caused roughly $15 billion in damage combined.
[Opinion: Trump ducks as Hurricane Florence dunks the Atlantic coast]
Dave Wilson, a South Carolina GOP strategist, told the Washington Examiner Thursday that he believes the administration will do and is doing everything it can to make sure that South Carolina is prepared for the impact of Florence. He noted that, while the state has experienced hurricanes in the past, like Hugo, it hasn’t faced anything as large as Florence. Wilson believes Florence could have an impact on the midterm elections and how South Carolina voters feel about the president’s ability to respond to natural disasters.
“Being on this side of the storm and understanding the fact that Gov. McMaster was the first state-wide elected official to support Donald Trump, I feel very good right now that South Carolina will get the help that it needs. This precludes politics, or supersedes it,” Wilson said. “What we will see from this is how well does the well oiled machine in Washington get relief here.”
Wilson frames it as the first test for an administration that hasn’t really had a natural disaster of this scale during its first two years.
“We will know what their response and capability of the administration will be in seven days. This will be the first test in how they can effectively respond to a natural disaster. We have not really had anything like this during the Trump administration,” Wilson said. “We aren’t new to hurricanes around here but this will be a test for the administration in terms of how voters feel the administration is effective. I think this could, with an impact on could, have some effect on the election.”
How a president responds to natural disasters during an election year can always have political implications.
In 1992, the massive category 5 Hurricane Andrew hit Florida and former President George H.W. Bush was the subject of media criticism for not acting quickly enough to mitigate the damage. Despite criticisms, Bush ultimately bested former President Bill Clinton in Florida that year. Bush would go on to lose to Clinton in 1992, but there is no hard evidence that the hurricane had a discernible effect on the election outcome.
Two decades later, in October 2012, Hurricane Sandy touched down in the northeast, covering New York, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. At the time, pundits likened it to an “October surprise.” The storm came one month before voters would choose between former President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. It isn’t entirely clear how Obama’s response to Sandy impacted the election, but former GOP New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was lambasted by Republicans for a now famous picture of him hugging Obama when he visited New Jersey in the wake of Sandy. Some pundits argued that the hurricane undermined Romney’s ability to focus on his talking points, giving a boon to Obama in the final weeks.
Chip Lake, a GOP strategist in Georgia, immediately brought up Sandy when asked about the effect hurricanes and natural disasters can have on elections.
“Everybody remembers Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Look, I have no idea what role Hurricane Sandy played in the election, but you can find some Republicans who said it benefited Obama,” Lake told the Washington Examiner Thursday. “Chris Christie kind of wrapped his arms around the president and the state had just experienced a natural disaster. We don’t normally see a hurricane in the month of October but look, the unofficial start of the general election season is always Labor Day.”
Lake said it is important to realize that anything that happens between Labor Day and the first Tuesday in November could possibly have an electoral impact. He believes the administration has acted quickly and is putting enough effort in to be prepared for Florence, but there is also no telling what kind of events or challenges might present themselves in the lead up to Election Day 2018.
“What effect if any this storm might have is to be determined. From all accounts this seems to be one of the biggest storms to hit the United States and could impact 3-5 states. I will say, I think the work that the admin and the president have done to prepare for this storm seems to be very good and very strong and prepared,” Lake said. “We have a long way to go and even though we are within that 60 day window it is still a long way off. There is no telling what other events or challenges we may face.”
One thing multiple strategists highlighted is that, during an election year, people will try to politicize any event. On the one hand, if things go favorably and the administration’s response is seen as effective, the president and Republicans can use that as a campaigning point. If things do not pan out, Democrats will likely use it to hit back against the president, who is already facing backlash Thursday for a series of tweets from the president regarding the death totals from hurricanes in Puerto Rico.
“3000 people did not die in the two hurricanes that hit Puerto Rico,” Trump tweeted Thursday morning. “When I left the Island, AFTER the storm had hit, they had anywhere from 6 to 18 deaths. As time went by it did not go up by much. Then, a long time later, they started to report really large numbers, like 3000.”
The president claimed the death figures are coming from Democrats that are trying to make his administration’s response in Puerto Rico look negative.
“This was done by the Democrats in order to make me look as bad as possible when I was successfully raising Billions of Dollars to help rebuild Puerto Rico,” Trump tweeted. “If a person died for any reason, like old age, just add them onto the list. Bad politics. I love Puerto Rico!”
[Jeb Bush: Trump casting doubt on Puerto Rico death toll ‘incredibly disheartening’]
As of the end of August, Hurricanes Irma and Maria were believed to have taken the lives of 2,975 people.
The consensus is that the impact of Florence on the midterm elections will come down to voters’ reactions to the administration’s efforts over the next week.
“The question is, do they believe the federal government is being responsive to the aftermath of the storm? If people believe that, it will benefit the president. If people believe the president didn’t do enough, that will fall on him,” Lake said.
Leading up to Florence making landfall, the president and his administration have taken a number of steps to prepare for the storm. The president granted emergency declarations in North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and other areas likely to be impacted by Florence and other storms. The administration says there are over 4,000 federal employees actively working to support those in the path of the storm and they have position resources, including over 11 million meals, 18 million liters of water, 60 thousand cots, and 1 million blankets, in the relevant areas.
