SAN ANTONIO — Mexico’s military deployment to block Central American migration remains “very active” nine months after President Trump threatened tariffs if it did not do so, but the deal could fall apart if either of the leading Democratic candidates is elected, according to a former top U.S. border official.
Mexico has “made the calculation that this is in their interest, and it will continue to be so long as they believe that stick is out there,” said Ron Vitiello, a 34-year Border Patrol agent who was Trump’s first Border Patrol chief. The deployment of thousands of Mexican troops to its southern border came to fruition last June after Trump told Mexico it would face 5%-25% tariffs on all trade if it did not do dramatically more to prevent migrants, primarily families, from passing through Mexico on their way to the United States.
Vitiello described Mexico’s continued use of troops along its southern border with Guatemala and internally in the country as something he had asked for throughout his career while he was stationed on the border in leadership roles.
“They’ve done this before, but never to this scale or sustainment,” Vitiello said about the troop deployments.
Last May, U.S. border officials encountered 144,000 people at the southern border. More than 90% had illegally crossed, and the remainder sought asylum at ports of entry. Many more went undetected. Mexico responded with troops on its northern and southern borders, as well as inside the country along popular travel routes. By August, the number of people encountered by border law enforcement was half the May rate, according to Customs and Border Protection data.
A Border Patrol agent based in the southern border’s busiest region in South Texas described at the time how part of the Mexican military’s success at the U.S.-Mexico border was due to keeping the cartels from allowing migrants to cross. Criminal organizations maintain control of land on the Mexico side of the border and charge migrants to cross the river. They were not letting as many people cross because it would draw attention and prompt a response from the nearby Mexican military.
Vitiello said he does not think Mexico has a reason to stop cooperating unless one of two things happens.
“The [Mexican] domestic politics could eat them up,” Vitiello said. But he added: “I don’t think they’re going to get to that place. Their economy is not that good. They rely on trade. They’re not going to be eager to pay a 25% tariff.”
If Trump loses the November election, Vitiello does not think either of the Democratic front-runners, former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, would continue to hold the threat of tariffs over Mexico in return for their deployment of troops to block migrants from Central America traveling to the U.S. The Biden and Sanders campaigns did not respond to requests for comment.
An unraveling of Trump policies could prompt a surge even greater than last year’s humanitarian crisis and with nowhere near enough immigration detention space to hold people, Vitiello said. Immigration and Customs Enforcement has just over 50,000 adult beds and even less bed space for families, which can legally be held no more than 20 days.
Under Trump, the Department of Homeland Security has implemented several policies and programs that it says will counter “loopholes” it says incentivize migrants to flee home countries plagued with extreme poverty and crime. Those policies include the court-challenged Migrant Protection Protocols program, or the Remain in Mexico policy, which mandates asylum-seekers wait in Mexico while their cases are heard in tent courts on the border, and increasing the number of repatriation flights of people who are returned to countries of origin.
“Without MPP, we’re right back where we were a year ago,” he said. “Congress could avoid another crisis at the border in very similar terms by making sure kids who were trafficked get relief and safeguards, setting standards for immigration detention, and still protecting the border.”
“They’ve been derelict in ignoring it,” he added.
After working as Border Patrol chief, Vitiello became deputy commissioner of CBP and acting director of ICE in the Trump administration before leaving government.
