Rep. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., is projecting an air of confidence ahead of her primary Tuesday as Republicans view her as the best shot to retain the seat being vacated by Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz.
McSally is the heavy favorite heading into Tuesday’s contest against Kelli Ward, a two-time Senate candidate, and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, and is acting accordingly. The Tucson-based congresswoman held no campaign events on Sunday or Monday and is keeping her focus on an expected general election contest against Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., a top recruit of Senate Democrats who faces only token opposition on Tuesday.
[New: Martha McSally pulls away to take home Arizona GOP Senate nod]
“This has not been a difficult primary, this has not been a hard primary. We’ve been focused on the general election,” McSally told Politico over the weekend. “We had a Democrat super PAC try to take us out, [and] fought back for a couple weeks. That’s what this primary story is and we’re going to crush it on Tuesday night.”
Most political watchers in the state are expecting a double-digit victory by McSally, who has taken her focus off of Ward after a week-long ad campaign against her. Last Thursday, she moved back to bashing Sinema in a blistering campaign ad hitting her for protesting U.S. military actions in a pink tutu after Sept. 11. McSally is a retired fighter pilot in the U.S. Air Force.
McSally’s team also believes her ad campaign against Ward, who trailed heavily in fundraising and money spent, has opened up a gulf between the two GOP candidates.
“Over time, all of that makes a difference,” said former Sen. Jon Kyl, a McSally supporter. “McSally’s run a good campaign … I do sense that she has a lot of momentum because she’s tenacious and very active in her campaign.”
A longtime Arizona Republican, Kyl predicted Monday that the Arizona congresswoman will score a “pretty dramatic victory” Tuesday and “win going away” over Ward, who lost to the late Sen. John McCain in 2016.
Ward, meanwhile, has had the opposite of a quiet week. She launched a multi-city bus tour last week featuring conservative talking head Tomi Lahren and Mike Cernovich, best known as a leader of the alt-right and a propagator of the “pizza-gate” conspiracy theory. Ward raised eyebrows over the weekend when she insinuated that McCain’s team announced he was discontinuing his medical treatment on Friday to harm her campaign. McCain died on Saturday.
The former Arizona state senator tried to walk back her comments, saying that they were directed at the media and not McCain’s family and team, but the damage was done.
“It’s pretty bizarre,” Kyl said. “I don’t know what she was thinking.”
McSally is expected to visit polling locations on Tuesday throughout the state ahead of a planned victory party in Phoenix.
Throughout the campaign, Ward and Arpaio have tossed attack after attack at McSally, who has tried hard to keep her eyes on November. The barbs center around McSally’s lack of support for President Trump ahead of the 2016 election and subsequent embrace of him after he took office. They have also targeted what they regard as her lack of conservative bonafides.
McSally allies say those attacks, particularly against her conservatism, are baseless.
“She’s a problem-solver and a team player,” said former Gov. Jan Brewer. “She is conservative. I don’t know what they consider conservative. I think that it’s a made up falsehood that they’re trying to get out there. Kelli perceives herself as the only conservative walking on the face of Arizona.”
According to the most recent ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights poll, McSally’s lead has extended to 20 points — up from the 8-point advantage she held a month earlier.
The general election contest, however, remains an open question. Although Republicans remain optimistic if McSally breaks through the primary, they admit Sinema is a formidable opponent who could present problems in November, particularly if anti-Trump sentiment remains at a fever pitch.
“I think her prospects are very good. I think you have to rate her as the favorite,” Kyl said. “Her opponent is very capable, smart — some would even say a clever campaigner.”
Update: An earlier version of this story incorrectly said Sinema faced no opposition in her primary. It has since been corrected.
