President Trump is energizing his base in key states by tapping into a deepening cultural divide over the coronavirus that pits conservatives eager to reopen the economy against liberals who want to continue social distancing.
The effort includes stoking opposition to Democratic governors in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, three competitive states critical to Trump’s 2020 prospects.
Grassroots conservatives are chaffing under aggressive guidelines Democratic governors have implemented to arrest the pandemic, keeping all but essential businesses closed. The president is supporting and amplifying their protests, an effort that could help him win reelection amid a public health crisis and an economy in free fall.
“The overreach and arbitrary actions of some Democrat governors plays to President Trump’s forehand once the campaign gets restarted,” said Charlie Gerow, a Republican operative in Pennsylvania. “Joe Biden will, when intelligible, defend big brotherish government orders. That won’t play well with independent voters, who make up the sliver of truly undecided voters.”
Beginning in mid-March, the Trump administration backed the efforts of states across the country to close businesses to stop the spread of COVID-19. But with more than 22 million people having lost their job since the pandemic hit, Trump has emphasized plans to transition the country to a normal economic footing beginning in May, as conditions warrant in each state.
Some states are moving quicker in that direction than others.
Georgia, among the most aggressive, is set to begin reopening its economy this week. South Carolina and Texas, two other states run by Republican governors, also are poised to ease the economic lockdown and permit certain businesses to reopen.
But states in the Rust Belt run by Democratic governors are more cautious. Govs. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Tom Wolf of Pennsylvania, and Tony Evers of Wisconsin want more evidence that the pandemic is subsiding before loosening restrictions. They have rebuffed Republicans in their legislatures who have demanded more flexible rules governing shelter-at-home orders reopening businesses.
“Increasingly, the Republican base is growing impatient with this,” said Rick Esenberg, president and general counsel for the Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty, a conservative group in Milwaukee. He explained that largely rural northern Wisconsin is “experiencing” the coronavirus differently than the heavily populated southeastern portion of the state because it has not suffered from as many COVID-19 infections.
“People are feeling less anxious about the virus and more anxious about how they are going to pay their bills,” Esenberg said. “I don’t think [Evers] is doing himself any favors.
Trump won narrow victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2016 and has little margin for error in those states this November. It is not clear that the president has expanded the map of competitive battlegrounds in his favor, and he might be losing ground in Arizona, a perennially red state. But Trump has a knack for spotting and exploiting cultural flashpoints.
With Democrats running these Midwestern states, Trump has a group of foils, and he needs to sidestep any blame that might be directed his way because of a turbulent economy and lingering concerns about the virus.
In Michigan, frustrated Republicans say they initially supported Whitmer’s actions to suppress the coronavirus. But they now accuse her of deliberately exceeding her constitutional authority for the transparently political purpose of auditioning to be chosen by Biden as his vice presidential running mate.
“There are a number of things we could do, transitioning safely and smartly to get some people back to work,” said Tony Daunt, executive director of Michigan Freedom Fund, a conservative group. “She’s resistant to it.”
