Control of the Senate is up for grabs this November, and the electoral map presents plum opportunities for both Democrats and Republicans to make gains, some receiving less attention than others.
Democrats only need three to four seats to flip the Senate’s balance of power in the fall, presuming they hold on to Alabama. And that isn’t likely, as Democratic Sen. Doug Jones is poised to lose to former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville only three years after arriving in Washington.
The problem for Republicans is they’re defending more ground, with 23 seats up for consideration this cycle compared to Democrats’ 12. They also face the prospect of a “wave” election where President Trump’s unpopularity could tank the rest of the GOP ticket. The president trails presumptive 2020 Democratic standard-bearer Joe Biden by an average of 8.7 percentage points in the polls, according to RealClearPolitics.
In traditional battleground states, such as Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina, Democrats are on the offensive.
Arizona Democrat Mark Kelly, a retired astronaut and Navy captain, is ahead of appointed Republican Sen. Martha McSally by an average of 5 points. In 2018, Arizona voters snubbed McSally, herself an Air Force veteran and former House lawmaker, in favor of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, the first Arizona Democrat elected to the chamber in 30 years. Now, McSally has half of Kelly’s money in the bank too, $11 million to his $24 million.
Two-term Democratic Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper has consistently recorded double-digit leads on GOP Sen. Cory Gardner. Though the favorite, Hickenlooper has to overcome his propensity for unforced errors and a cash shortfall. The former Denver mayor and vanquished White House hopeful has $4.6 million in his coffers to Gardner’s $10.7 million.
Democratic Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon is running 2.5 points in front of Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who’s been a key swing vote in the chamber, in a state that will be pummeled by pro-Democratic advertising as Biden tries to notch up the 2nd Congressional District’s single electoral vote via Maine’s split system. The rivals contesting one of the season’s marquee races are on par in terms of fundraising, with about $5.5 million saved so far.
And GOP North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis is vulnerable as well. Former Democratic state Sen. Cal Cunningham has a 4.2-point advantage in polling, while the opponents are neck and neck in the money stakes, banking more than $6.6 million each.
Other states in the mix include those that have leaned Republican in the past. Two seats in Georgia, and one apiece in Iowa, Montana, even Kansas, are among those that are now more competitive than usual for Democrats.
Yet for all the posturing between pundits looking to outsmart one another on Twitter, here are three under-the-radar Senate matchups observers should keep an eye on as we inch closer to the Nov. 3 elections.
Michigan
RealClearPolitics this week added Democratic Sen. Gary Peters’s race against likely Republican challenger Army veteran and businessman John James to its “toss-up” contest column. The same outlet has the first-term incumbent, who was previously a House lawmaker, ahead by an average of 8.7 points.
But Peters’s seat is still a prime target for the GOP, hoping for Michigan to stay red at the presidential level. The National Republican Senatorial Committee ran a $1.5 million ad blitz against him all of June, and James is apace with his fundraising and cash on hand totals. Yet internal polling conducted by ALGI Research in June indicated both Biden and Peters are leading in Michigan’s conservative, Grand Rapids-anchored 3rd Congressional District, which doesn’t bode well for Trump or James statewide.
Minnesota
Appointed Democratic Sen. Tina Smith wants to return to Washington after replacing Al Franken in 2018 following his resignation over sexual misconduct allegations. She’ll likely vie against former GOP House lawmaker and radio host Jason Lewis, who drew wrath for controversial comments on his nationally syndicated program. Public opinion surveys give the ex-lieutenant governor an advantage, and she has $5 million more in the bank than Lewis, $5.8 million to his $927,000.
The race could’ve been tighter if Trump was performing better in Minnesota. Frequent trips to the state toward the start of the COVID-19 outbreak signaled his campaign was playing for its 10 electoral votes, but Biden has posted strong numbers there since George Floyd’s death on Memorial Day.
Texas
Granted, Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who’s attempting to secure a fourth term, isn’t the most likely candidate for this list. But the first poll checking the temperature of his contest against Air Force major and teacher MJ Hegar since she won the Democratic primary last week has the pair separated by single digits, 47% to 38%, with Cornyn in front.
While Cornyn has an average 10-point lead, Quinnipiac University’s study this week found that more than half of respondents didn’t have an opinion of Hegar. Combined with Cornyn’s relatively low name recognition and inability to cross the 50% support threshold, that figure shows her room for growth. She’s just up against a huge fundraising deficit. She has $902,000 in her coffers to his $14.5 million.
