President Trump is gambling his reelection on “normal,” holding indoor campaign rallies and airing television ads that cast the coronavirus as fading — a message some Republicans worry could backfire amid a pandemic that continues to cost lives.
Trump rallied with thousands of supporters Sunday inside a Las Vegas-area manufacturing plant. Even outdoors, the Trump campaign has begun pre-pandemic political revivals, with tightly packed crowds that often eschew protective face masks, coinciding with the launch of a glossy new television advertisement that treats the coronavirus as a vanishing phenomenon. “In the race for a vaccine, the finish line is approaching,” the spot proclaims. “President Trump’s great American comeback is now underway.”
But the coronavirus remains a deadly threat, and there is no guarantee of a viable vaccine or that there will not be another surge in COVID-19 infections. Nor is recovery from a deep, pandemic-induced recession assured to proceed smoothly. And that is what concerns many Republican strategists less than 50 days until Election Day.
“He’s doubling down on base messaging when he really needs to focus on soft partisans and independents so that he can break past 45%,” said John Couvillon, a Republican pollster in Louisiana. Jim Dornan, a veteran Republican strategist in Washington, added that “continuing to downplay the virus when it could very well come back is a huge risk.”
The Trump campaign is dismissive.
“People want to hear from their president, and as the economic recovery increases, people are eager to get engaged in the president’s re-election,” said Trump campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh in a statement.
The rallies energize Trump, who feeds off the crowd. The raucous, concert-style gatherings also function as a key component of the president’s strategy to defeat Democratic nominee Joe Biden. The Trump campaign uses the events to dominate targeted, local media markets with the president’s message — and to motivate voter turnout among people who are inclined to support the incumbent, as long as they show up at the polls.
Republicans are not recommending that the president return to a virtual footing, agreeing that his aggressive travel schedule could fuel a comeback against Biden, who leads in many national polls and battleground state surveys. But they fear the imagery of Trump headlining crowded rallies will only reinforce voters’ broadly held dissatisfaction with his management of the coronavirus, an issue that could hand the election to his Democratic challenger.
Republicans are less critical of Trump’s optimistic message of economic restoration, but they are leery.
“This is their easiest play,” a Republican operative said. “Trying to back off the ‘things are great/will be fine’ message after six months would be complicated.”
Trump’s approach received a boost from the August jobs report. The unemployment rate dropped below 10% for the first time since the pandemic decimated the economy in March, and nearly 1.4 million new jobs were added. But the following week, unemployment insurance claims hit 884,000, higher than expected, and industries and small businesses are continuing to reel from the coronavirus.
Still, Biden’s decision to go all-in on a pandemic campaign strategy carries its own uncertainty.
This month, the former vice president is traveling more after saying he was staying put as a health precaution. On Friday, he was in New York City and Shanksville, Pennsylvania, to commemorate the 19th anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. On Tuesday, Biden is scheduled to be in Florida, while his wife Jill will be in Michigan. This Friday, Biden is headed to Minnesota.
But he is hitting the road less often than Trump, and his ground game, though aggressive, continues to engage voters virtually. Some Biden supporters worry the president might have more success at turning out his key supporters because, over the summer, the Republican campaign returned to knocking on doors, believed to be the most effective turnout tactic.
The Biden campaign is expressing confidence in its approach, with Democratic operatives arguing that the last thing a voter wants to see in the middle of a pandemic is a stranger at his or her front door. This strategy also fits with Biden’s message that addressing the coronavirus is paramount.
“Joe Biden believes in leading by example,” Biden campaign spokesman Michael Gwin said.
