Voters head to the polls in Virginia on Tuesday to choose their next governor, and leaders from both parties are holding their collective breath to see who comes out on top in a race as close as any in recent memory.
Republican Glenn Youngkin entered Election Day with a slight lead, edging out Democrat Terry McAuliffe by 1.7 points in the RealClearPolitics average of polling.
But Virginia remains a solidly blue state, and no Republican has won a statewide contest there in more than a decade, giving the GOP reason for pessimism despite the clear momentum Youngkin amassed in the final weeks of the race.
Here’s what to watch heading into Tuesday evening.
When we’ll see results
The polls will close Tuesday night at 7 p.m. Any voter who is in line at his or her polling location by that time will still be allowed to cast a ballot.
Early voting began 45 days before Tuesday and ended on Saturday, which was the last opportunity before the election to cast a ballot in person.
Virginia doesn’t register its voters by party, making it difficult to know who leads among those who voted early. However, more than a million Virginians have already cast their ballots, and the early vote has historically favored Democrats.
Three of the four congressional districts in which the earliest in-person ballots were cast are represented by Democrats, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.
How mail-in ballots will factor
Millions more relied on mail-in voting during the 2020 election than in previous cycles, and many Virginians continued to utilize that option in this contest as well.
Unlike in 2020, however, Virginia began processing mail-in ballots before Election Day to speed up a system that was marred by delays last year.
Election officials haven’t tallied the votes from any of the absentee ballots they’ve received. But because the preliminary part of the process in doing so is already done, the mail-in voting results are likely to be reported before some of the in-person results.
That could skew the early returns toward McAuliffe, who is expected to perform better with those who voted absentee.
What a McAuliffe win will look like
McAuliffe needs to have amassed a larger share of the early vote to overcome what is expected to be a stronger Election Day turnout for Youngkin in some of the more rural areas of the state.
Democrats have expressed optimism he’s done so, as more early and absentee ballots have been cast in blue areas of Virginia than in red ones.
Results from the northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C., will also need to favor McAuliffe heavily in order for him to win.
Early returns that show him running away with a place like Fairfax County, for example, could indicate he is on his way to staving off disaster for Democrats.
Low turnout is a concern for Democrats, who hope enough of their supporters in their strongholds, such as Alexandria or affluent Loudoun County, show up to vote to compensate for Republican voters’ superior enthusiasm in the race.
What a Youngkin win will look like
Youngkin performing better than expected with those who voted by mail, whose ballots will likely be counted and published first, could signal that the Republican candidate is on his way to a victory.
Youngkin does not need to win populous northern Virginia counties in order to pull off an upset overall — he just needs to perform well enough to erode McAuliffe’s advantage in the region.
The Republican candidate can lose two-thirds of the votes from Loudoun County, according to the Cook Political Report, and still become the next governor.
Results from places like Loudoun County, which has become the centerpiece of Youngkin’s campaign against perceived overreaches from public schools, will signal whether Youngkin is defying trends that have seen the area shift increasingly blue in recent cycles.
Higher turnout in the rural southern part of the state could also signal Youngkin is in for a good night, as he is expected to run up the score in that part of the state.
What else to watch
The performance of Youngkin and McAuliffe will likely dictate how candidates further down the ballot in Virginia fare on Tuesday.
However, some races may break differently if the result is especially close.
Attorney General Mark Herring, for example, has already been elected twice to his post and is seeking his third term. But Republican opponent Jason Miyares is polling close to Herring, and if McAuliffe loses this week, he could bring Herring down as well.
Democrats currently have a 10-seat majority in the Virginia House of Delegates, and they hope to retain control of the legislative chamber after Tuesday.
Republicans have invested in a handful of delegate races they see as competitive given Democrats’ flagging political fortunes overall, and they’re aiming to flip a number of them, including in northern Virginia and near Richmond, if the night turns out to be particularly good for Republicans.
