House Republicans bearish on big gains via redistricting despite census edge

Democratic-leaning voters migrated to the Sunbelt in droves over the past decade, accounting for significant population growth in states such as Texas. At the same time, voter realignment along education lines accelerated under former President Donald Trump, contributing to the bluing of formerly ruby-red suburbs. Those factors, combined with the uncertain outcome of expected Democratic legal challenges to new congressional maps produced by GOP legislatures, have Republicans bracing for fewer gains than initially anticipated.

“We still have to run competitive races. Redistricting alone will not deliver Republicans the 218 seats we need to take back the majority,” said Michael McAdams, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, the House GOP campaign arm.

Redistricting is getting a later start this time around, with the coronavirus pandemic and legal challenges to Trump’s handling of the census delaying the release of the population data used to reapportion House districts. That alone threatens to complicate efforts by both parties to adjust to the redrawn congressional maps and minimize challenges posed by new boundaries.

But Democrats and Republicans, girding for battle, are better armed than ever to wage a multifront war over the new congressional map that will play out in state and federal court, in state legislatures, and in redistricting commissions. The Republicans are coordinating the party’s national strategy through the National Republican Redistricting Trust; Democrats are doing the same via the National Democratic Redistricting Commission. Neither group existed 10 years ago.

Strategists for the NRRT and the NDRC are advising fellow partisans in the states in charge of redistricting. The organizations have spent recent years accumulating granular voter data down to the precinct level — an arduous task given precinct boundaries for primary and general elections are rarely the same and change from election to election. Both have networks of election lawyers on call, ready to deploy to the states at a moment’s notice to wage legal fights.

“We are a coordinating hub,” said Adam Kincaid, who runs the NRRT. “We don’t do electioneering, but we will fund lawsuits.”

“We’re ready to fight in court to make sure we get fair maps,” added Kelly Ward Burton, president of the NDRC. The fairness message is one Democrats are expected to lean on throughout the process. In 2018, they won 40 seats and captured the House after eight years out of power. But Democrats complain that fairer maps would have led to a pickup of an additional 16 seats, pointing to an Associated Press analysis.

The federal census, conducted every ten years, distributes 435 House seats among the 50 states. Seven states have only one House member, including Vermont and Wyoming.

But the drawing of congressional boundaries is more complicated, and often, political.

In some states, such as Arizona and Iowa, ostensibly nonpartisan commissions draw the map, with the stated goals of producing districts that keep communities together, honor federal voting rights legislation, and deny one party or the other an inherent partisan advantage. It does not always work that way. After the 2010 redistricting process, Republicans went to court, contesting the Arizona map as unfairly tilted toward the Democrats. Their legal effort failed.

In many states, the legislature is in charge, and the governor has a veto, enabling self-interested party powerbrokers to draw politically advantageous lines. In such states where either Democrats or Republicans wield full control, they typically engage in “gerrymandering” to produce as many districts as possible that are inclined to back their party. This practice, often yielding odd-shaped districts, has become more precise over the years as access to data and mapping technology has improved.

Democrats blame gerrymandering for congressional maps that elected and sustained Republican majorities in the House from 2010 to 2018. After House Republicans flipped a dozen Democratic-held seats even as President Biden defeated Trump, Democrats fear redistricting is poised to boost the GOP in next year’s midterm elections. With Texas poised to gain three new seats, much of the debate over gerrymandering will center there.

The additions are expected to net Republicans two seats and Democrats one. However, Democratic operatives in the state predict Republicans in the legislature will attempt to manipulate the new map to improve the GOP’s existing advantage in the state beyond the addition of the new seats. “Redistricting gets creative in every state. It gets really creative in Texas,” said Ed Espinoza, a strategist with the liberal group Progress Texas.

Meanwhile, Cook Political Report redistricting specialist Dave Wasserman points out that Democrats in New York could use reapportionment to increase significantly the number of House seats drawn to elect members of their party even though the state is on track to lose a district. “They’re complete hypocrites,” a Republican operative involved in redistricting charged. “The only fair map for Democrats is a map that elects more Democrats.”