President Joe Biden may be a loser in the Virginia gubernatorial race unless Democratic nominee Terry McAuliffe wins big, decisively seizing a historic second nonconsecutive term.
Republican nominee Glenn Youngkin has chipped away at Biden’s political cachet, as well as McAuliffe’s polling lead, in what has become a toss-up race less than a year after Biden dominated former President Donald Trump in the commonwealth by double digits. And a narrow McAuliffe victory or defeat could have devastating consequences for Biden and his liberal colleagues’ legislative agenda.
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Youngkin prevailing will have “vast” political repercussions, according to Virginia-based politics commentator Jeremy Mayer.
“If the Democrats lose statewide in Virginia for the first time since 2009, it will be a ‘run for the hills’ moment for many congressional Democrats,” the George Mason University politics professor said.
Capitol Hill retirements will serve as a marker of Democratic concern before the 2022 midterm elections, Mayer contended.
“If McAuliffe couldn’t carry Virginia, a lot of D’s are going to think they could well lose in 2022,” Mayer told the Washington Examiner, referring to Democrats. “Each one that retires makes it easier for the GOP to take the House or Senate back. And even if you think you are going to win your seat, you might well not want to be in the minority, particularly in the House.”
And relinquishing their congressional majorities will have “terrible” ramifications for Biden and Democrats, Mayer added.
“A Virginia loss is huge for what it means for 2022. And 2022 is huge for the rest of Biden’s presidency,” he said. “Losing the Senate could mean that the Democrats go another four years with no Supreme Court nominations.”
The White House has cautiously embraced McAuliffe. Deputy spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Air Force One en route to the United Kingdom for the United Nations climate summit that Biden endorsed McAuliffe and that Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris had stumped for him multiple times. But she declined to comment on whether the McAuliffe-Youngkin contest was a referendum on Biden’s first nine months in office. Biden will be flying home from the summit in Scotland when the last votes are cast.
“I’m not going to get into speculation on how this race is going to turn out or anything specific like that,” Jean-Pierre said.
Virginia political guru Larry Sabato, who directs the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics and “Crystal Ball” election prognosticator blog, moved the McAuliffe-Youngkin contest Monday from a toss-up to lean Republican. And the changing dynamics have been reflected in McAuliffe’s increasingly frantic messages to their email database.
“The outcome of this race will all depend on voter turnout. Republicans are fired up to elect their guy, and now, with Donald Trump rallying up his base of right-wing extremists on the eve of Election Day, Glenn Youngkin is sure to have a strong showing tomorrow,” McAuliffe wrote Monday in a fundraising note. “We have to do better than them.”
Republicans have latched onto the idea Biden has become a drag on McAuliffe, a sentiment expressed by the nominee himself during what he thought was a private teleconference. Polling does suggest Biden’s support among independent and black voters is fracturing as Capitol Hill Democrats squabble over his spending packages. But McAuliffe has not helped himself, particularly with his debate remark about the role of parents in their children’s schooling
The Republican Governors Association peddled a memo Monday underscoring how the McAuliffe-Youngkin contest’s competitiveness was attributable to “the right candidate and a strong message.”
“Swing voters, suburban voters, moderates, and working-class Democrats have become disillusioned by the liberal agenda in both Washington and in their state capitols, and they are seeing first-hand the harmful effects of the liberal Left’s agenda,” it read. “From spiking gas prices to the escalating cost of food and everyday items to violence in our schools and on our streets, key voting blocs are rejecting the failed and tired policies of President Biden and his liberal allies.”
In an interview, a Republican strategist familiar with the commonwealth pushed back on the notion that Youngkin pulling so close to McAuliffe was a win in itself.
“We’re not into moral victories, but it’s definitely a huge red flag for Democrats for next year,” the source said.
One of the Republican takeaways has been not to nationalize Youngkin’s race as McAuliffe fixates on Trump. Youngkin, however, has been aided in that regard because he is a conservative who is not “bombastic” like radio host Larry Elder, the strategist said. Elder was one of the many GOP candidates who failed in September to recall California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom.
A Democratic Governors Association spokesman did not immediately respond to questions about McAuliffe and Biden. But a Democratic National Committee spokesman emphasized Monday the DNC’s upwards of $6 million spent on financial, advertising, and organizing in Virginia. That includes minority community outreach and “voter protection” programs, he explained.
“To date, the DNC distributed organizing program mobilized volunteers who’ve completed 11,221 shifts, made 890,000 phone calls, and sent 3.5 million text messages,” he said. “Additionally, the DNC has managed rallies and campaign events in the commonwealth featuring President Biden, three events with Vice President Harris, first lady Dr. Jill Biden, and second gentleman Doug Emhoff.”
For the DNC, via a separate statement, McAuliffe had “brought 200,000 jobs and $1 billion for education to the commonwealth during his time as governor, and Glenn Youngkin, who Donald Trump just today said ‘strongly [believes] in many of the same policies’ and conspiracy theories as the former president.”
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“We always knew this would be a close race and the DNC has made unprecedented investments in Virginia because we know the commonwealth deserves a governor and legislature that will spend the next four years continuing to deliver results for working families,” the spokesman said.
