Polling guru Nate Silver sees “a lot of issues” with President Trump’s quest for reelection in November.
So much so that a “landslide” for Joe Biden is possible.
Silver appeared on ABC over the weekend to share the “big news” that FiveThirtyEight released its presidential polling averages last week.
“Joe Biden leads by around 9 points in our national polling average, and that lead has been growing. Of course, national polls don’t really matter. Otherwise, Hillary Clinton would have been president,” he said. “But it’s worth noting that such a large lead is unusual in politics these days. Clinton never led by more than about 7 points, for example, and at this point in the 2008 race, Barack Obama led John McCain by around 6 points.”
“So, Trump needs to make a comeback, and there is plenty of time for that, and maybe also get some help from the Electoral College,” he added.
Silver stressed in a post on Thursday that Biden’s lead in swing states is much smaller, giving Trump an opening to win the Electoral College if the race tightens.
He wrote that the former vice president leads in states worth 368 electoral votes, while Trump leads in states totaling 170 electoral votes. “So while a Biden landslide is possible if he wins all these swing states, so is a Trump Electoral College victory, depending on which way the race moves between now and November,” he said.
He explained further on Sunday that the contest is closer in the Midwest than it is nationally.
“The race is a bit tighter,” Silver said. “We have Biden up by a more modest 6 points in Wisconsin and 5 points in Pennsylvania. Biden also can’t necessarily take Minnesota for granted. Trump nearly won it in 2016, and there’s been no polling there since the protest began in the state.”
“But there are a lot of issues for Trump. He’s behind by 10 in Michigan, and Biden is doing surprisingly well in Florida, ahead by 7 points. If Biden were to win Florida, then he’d only need one state from that Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin group. Or Biden could lose all of those Midwestern states but win Arizona, where our average has him up by 4,” he continued. “So, for the time being, no, I don’t buy that we’re going to have exactly the same map as in 2016. Instead, Trump is kind of fighting a two-front war, with problems in the Midwest on one hand and then Arizona and Florida on the other hand.”
Silver concluded: “I want to be really clear — Trump could absolutely win reelection, but he definitely has his work cut out for him.”
[Related: Democrats whisper ‘Biden landslide’]
