Battered House Republicans wonder how much more Trump they can take

“The plea and [verdicts] will give legitimacy to the investigations to the most important constituency for control of the House — college-educated, suburban voters,” a veteran Republican insider told the Washington Examiner on Wednesday. “For several cycles we won those voters because they looked, acted, and voted like Republicans. Now, they’re swinging — forcefully — the other way.”

“If Democrats use this right, it could cost House Republicans the majority,” a former senior GOP congressional aide said. “They promised to drain the swamp but instead filled it with criminal and corruption alligators.” The Republicans interviewed for this story, to avoid criticizing Trump publicly or causing political blowback for their clients, requested anonymity in order to speak candidly.

Trump on Tuesday was accused by longtime personal attorney Michael Cohen of breaking federal campaign finance law in a conspiracy to quash potentially damaging revelations of multiple extramarital affairs that threatened to become public just prior to the 2016 election. Cohen leveled the charges as part of his guilty plea on federal charges that he committed financial crimes.

Also Tuesday, Hunter and his wife were indicted on federal charges of using campaign funds to pay personal expenses and support a lifestyle beyond their means. Hunter was among the first congressmen to endorse Trump two years ago. Neither Cohen’s plea nor Hunter’s indictment are part of special counsel Robert Mueller’s federal investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 elections and possible collusion by Trump or his associates.

Manafort was indicated by Mueller, and some Republican strategists worry his guilty verdicts, on eight of 18 counts, could lend extra credence to the investigation, undercutting House Republicans where their majority is most vulnerable: the affluent suburbs that traditionally vote GOP for Congress but, led by educated white women, are drifting because of dissatisfaction with the president.

“It feels viscerally like these things are a Mark Foley-like blow to Republican chances,” said a Republican insider who experienced the 2006 Democratic wave that cost the GOP control of the House and Senate.

Foley, then a Republican congressman from Florida, was discovered just after Labor Day 2006 to have initiated inappropriate contact with teenagers who work on Capitol Hill as pages. The story helped cement Democratic claims that the Republican majority operated a “culture of corruption” and contributed to the Democratic takeover of Congress.

However, this Republican said: “The problem for them, and the opportunity for us, is that the idea of these particular nutty Democrats in charge still scares a lot of independent voters.”

Indeed, Republicans are staking their House majority on Democratic overreach.

Republican insiders expect Cohen’s allegations, and Manafort’s guilty verdicts, to up demands for impeachment from the Democratic base. That would create a real dilemma for Democrats: side with party activists working in the trenches, or the independent voters who could deliver them the House majority.

Democrats are gaining with independents, disappointed in a Republican-controlled Washington they believe is consumed with partisanship. The perception that Democrats are seeking the majority to impeach Trump could damage their standing with this crucial cohort.

Democratic strategists concede that a drive toward impeachment in the 2018 campaign could hamper their party’s chances of flipping the House. That’s probably why House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., continues to downplay suggestions that Democrats would pursue impeachment if they won the House on Nov. 6.

Except Democratic candidates in swing states and battleground districts aren’t running on impeachment, party strategists say. That they would abandon their focus on the kitchen table issues that have dominated their campaigns, Democratic insiders say, is a fiction furthered by Republicans to try and mitigate the challenges to their majority generated by Trump.

“I think it’s a 2020 problem, not a 2018 problem,” a Democratic pollster said. “I have zero fear that Democrats in these battleground districts will, by choice or force, feel compelled to take up the mantle of impeachment between now and November — unless Mueller has something to say.”

Trump in an interview with Fox News denied the allegations leveled by Cohen. The president’s assurances aren’t likely to assuage the Republicans’ anxiety after their strategy of making the midterm elections a referendum on the growing economy has been constantly thwarted by avoidable controversies fanned by the White House and Trump’s twitter feed.

In early July, it was Trump’s kowtowing to Russian President Vladimir Putin during a news conference in Helsinki. Some weeks before that, it was the crisis of child separations at the Southern border. Prior to that, it was his alleged affair with porn star Stormy Daniels. Many Republicans also see the trade disputes Trump has instigated with China and a host of U.S. allies as another in a string of unforced errors. The list goes on.

With 75 days until the vote, Republicans are wondering if their message will ever break through — worries compounded by Cohen, Hunter, Manafort — and the federal indictment of another Trump ally: Rep. Chris Collins, R-N.Y., that came down earlier this month.

“The biggest problem is that there’s no end in sight,” a GOP operative said. “What’s the end game? Everybody expects the worst is yet to come, which makes it hard for people to get excited about November. Trump needs to figure out a way to get control of the narrative.”

Meanwhile, the GOP is poised to pick up Senate seats this fall because the road to the majority there runs right through ruby red states, with influential blocs of rural and working class voters, that remain pleased with Trump.