Centrist Republicans headed home for July 4th absent the immigration reform victory they sought to bolster their flagging prospects in the midterm elections and wondering how to spin another defeat.
Rep. Jeff Denham, R-Calif., who represents a Central Valley district with a large Hispanic contingent, said all members are responsible for the failure of legislation that delivered on President Trump’s border security priorities while offering a path to citizenship for nearly 2 million Dreamers — undocumented immigrants brought to the U.S. illegally as children.
Rep. Carlos Curbelo, R-Fla., running for re-election in a Miami-area seat that voted overwhelmingly for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016, was optimistic that voters in districts like his would reward Republicans who forced the reform issue over the objections of House GOP leaders and conservative immigration hawks.
“Our constituents who have been following the news closely for the last few weeks understand that, but for us, there would have not have even been an immigration debate on the House floor. We would not have had any bill on the House floor. We forced this debate,” Curbelo told reporters during a news conference a few days before the July Fourth recess.
Denham, Curbelo, and a group of other centrists strong-armed House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., into allowing a vote on immigration reform legislation after they threatened to use a rarely-used parliamentary procedure to require a floor vote on legislation that might have been far less conservative than the twin packages that ultimate received a vote. Both failed after receiving tepid support from Trump.
Had Democrats provided significant support for either bill, they could have passed. But for centrists running for another two-year term in districts unfriendly to Trump and his hard-line immigration policies, blaming the minority could be a tough sell considering the Republicans control all levers of lawmaking.
The political risks these Republicans face was evident in those who took high profile roles in this latest unsuccessful attempt to overhaul U.S. immigration law and provide a path to legalization to the “Dreamers.” Unlike other illegal immigrants, this group knows no other nation than this one, having been raised and schooled here, and enjoys the sympathy of a broad swath of the American public.
Joining Denham and Curbelo were Republican Reps. David Valadeo of California, Will Hurd of Texas, Erik Paulsen of Minnesota, Mike Coffman of Colorado, and John Katko of New York, among others. Clinton topped Trump in all seven their ethnically diverse districts. Among this group, only Valadeo appears safe in November, but he was no less upset at coming away empty-handed.
“Obviously, you can see it in our faces: We’re frustrated,” he said. “Some progress would have been nice to see out of this House. But, not a good vote.”
Immigration reform has stymied the Congress, and in particular, Republicans, for more than a decade. The GOP generally agrees on border security, but is divided on how to address the approximately 11 million illegal immigrants.
There was initially some hope among the centrist Republicans who pushed this latest effort. They negotiated with House GOP leaders and conservative immigration hawks to include key border security priorities Trump has been demanding in any immigration bill, notably, funding for a border wall.
Additionally, the package would have codified the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program to protect “Dreamers,” and included a legislative fix the administration has said it needs to end the practice of separating families apprehended crossing the Southern border illegally. Trump is on record supporting both.
Two bills were given a vote, the second more generous to the 2 million individuals eligible for the DACA program, since discontinued by the Trump administration (it offered a path to citizenship, the more conservative bill only bestowed legal status.)
But both failed, in part because Trump’s on-again-off-again endorsement of each wasn’t enough to convince wavering House Republicans to risk a vote on immigration reform this close to what could be a difficult midterm election.
Republican strategists concede that congressional Republicans are right to worry. Trump won the 2016 GOP presidential primary in part because he was the biggest border hawk among his competitors, and that’s because grassroots Republicans are suspicious of comprehensive immigration bills, especially those that offer any kind of “amnesty.”
“The voters demand security first, but every attempt in Congress dating back to the [President George W.] Bush proposals holds security hostage to reform,” a Republican insider said. “The only way to get to reform is one step at a time, and the first step is security. We keep failing because we keep trying to jump the entire stairwell. It’s like we have amnesia every time and can’t remember why the last one failed.”
