Strong majorities of right-leaning and independent young voters would be more likely to vote for Republican candidates who acknowledge climate change and seek to address it through public policies, new polling says.
In addition, more than half of young right-leaning voters said climate change would sway their vote this election cycle, and even more, 77% say the issue was important to them. The Washington Examiner was given a first look at the results from the survey of 1,000 voters under the age of 35.
For the American Conservation Coalition, the group of young conservatives seeking to curb climate change who commissioned the poll, the numbers prove there’s plenty of room for Republican lawmakers in a policy arena that’s traditionally been dominated by Democrats.
And they say it raises the stakes for House Republicans as they work to put together and promote their own set of climate policies this year, in a bid to present a coherent, conservative approach to address global warming.
“Republicans are losing independent voters and young people on this issue. They already knew that,” said Benji Backer, president of the American Conservation Coalition. “This polling showcases they are losing the base on this issue, too.”
Backer and his team say the polling results show many young people who care deeply about climate change aren’t necessarily married to the Democratic Party or even more liberal policy approaches to addressing the issue, such as the Green New Deal, the sweeping climate plan touted by progressive New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
For example, 87% of all young voters polled agreed that U.S. climate policies should both reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and increase economic prosperity. In addition, the polling found around a third of respondents across the political spectrum, even left-leaning young voters were still unsure about the Green New Deal.
Backer recalled an experience he had in Texas, speaking on stage with a climate change activist there. She told the crowd the only reason she backed the Green New Deal was because she didn’t know of another comprehensive policy that addressed the issue, he said.
“That was a really big wake-up call for me,” Backer said. “This belief that climate change is inherently left-wing, something trending toward socialism — it’s not a trend. It’s a cry for help on this issue. Our side has not done a good enough job.”
The American Conservation Coalition, though, is ready to give members of the Republican Party some tough love if they need to. That’s because they see the Republican climate strategy House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is set to roll out later this year as an opportunity not just to pick up young independent voters, but also critical to maintaining the support of young conservatives, and even a chance to attract some left-leaning young voters.
According to the polling, more than half of independent (55%), moderate (64%), and even left-leaning (53%) young voters would consider voting for a Republican candidate who has adopted policies to address climate change.
That means the muscle behind the climate policies McCarthy and other Republican lawmakers are proposing is just as important as having a succinct message to promote them.
“You see that in the Green New Deal numbers,” said Quill Robinson, government affairs director for the American Conservation Coalition. Even though Ocasio-Cortez and her allies have done a good job branding their plan, a lot of voters are still unsure whether they support it, he noted.
“That signals to me that Republicans have to be very smart about branding this and selling it and effectively communicating why their plans for addressing climate change” are best suited to address the issue, Robinson said.
That includes “calling a spade a spade,” he said. “It has to be climate change. It’s happening. It’s real.”
Robinson added Republicans’ message should be positive “but also aggressive” in terms of what their policies can accomplish.
The poll also found nearly two-thirds (61%) of young voters’ concern about climate change increases as they get older.
“This is an issue that’s going to stick with people,” said Bethany Bowra, communications director for the American Conservation Coalition. “If Republicans want to engage the next generation and keep them, we have no choice but to address this now.”
The polling firm Savanta conducted the survey, which spanned 1,000 voters under the age of 35, split equally between men and women.
Half of those polled were age 18 to 24, and half were age 25 to 35, and respondents spanned a range of geographic locations and political leaning, though just over half of those surveyed identified as either Republican or independent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.
