House GOP leadership race puts McCarthy and Scalise alliances to the test

National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Emmer’s (R-MN) decision to inform members he plans to throw his hat in the ring has shaken up the dynamics of the battle for what would be the No. 3 position in GOP leadership should the party take back control of the House. The Minnesota Republican is set to face off against Republican Study Committee Chairman Jim Banks (R-IN) and Chief Deputy Whip Drew Ferguson (R-GA) in the race for the coveted role.

As jockeying for the spot accelerates, top lawmakers have quietly begun to take steps to aid their preferred candidates in the race for the position on the leadership team, multiple GOP members confirmed.

While current members of House GOP leadership haven’t publicly issued endorsements, five lawmakers and four aides told the Washington Examiner that House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has indicated he won’t back Ferguson in the race. Sources speculated Ferguson’s close working relationship with House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, who was previously seen as a potential rival to McCarthy for the top GOP post last cycle, is a likely factor in the California Republican’s alleged leanings in the race.

“I don’t know what drove those two apart, but it could just be a function of Kevin views Drew as too aligned with Scalise and Kevin wants his own people,” one Republican member said.

While rumors of tensions between McCarthy and Scalise have largely dissipated as they’ve worked together to take back the House, two sources with knowledge confirmed McCarthy has blocked Ferguson from attending the leadership’s daily management meetings despite former Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) including the position of chief deputy whip in the talks — a move some allege may be an effort to keep the Scalise ally out of the fold.

Multiple lawmakers pointed to lobbyist and longtime McCarthy confidant Jeff Miller having hosted a fundraiser for Banks in late July as a signal that the California Republican is looking to boost the RSC chairman in the race, with one senior GOP aide arguing that Miller would not have held the event without McCarthy green-lighting it first.

While McCarthy, the front-runner to become the next speaker, and Banks have been closely aligned, two sources note that the California Republican has repeatedly praised Emmer’s leadership at the NRCC and believe he’s amenable to the idea of the Minnesota Republican serving as whip, with some speculating he may have encouraged him to run.

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Another lawmaker said that Emmer informed members that “he talked to Kevin and Kevin did not discourage him” from entering the race while making his pitch to colleagues not to commit their vote to another contender just yet.

McCarthy has denied that he is attempting to prop up or work against any of the members seeking the position, asserting that his top priority is flipping the House.

“Leader McCarthy is focused on winning the majority, not leadership elections, and the conference will decide who is the best candidate at the right time.” McCarthy spokesman Mark Bednar said in a statement.

While McCarthy’s alleged preference in the race may sway some minds, multiple sources said they wouldn’t rule Ferguson out, noting he has worked to secure a significant amount of backing and is seen as hard-working and well-liked within the conference.

Scalise, like McCarthy, has not publicly endorsed anyone for the job, but three senior GOP sources asserted it’s clear that the Louisiana Republican is standing by his chief deputy in the race and willing to tout Ferguson’s experience and credentials in instances where it could help the Georgia Republican garner support.

“Ferguson is a utility player; he’s got deep relationships across the entire conference and can get into the weeds on policy, and that’s what separates Republicans and Democrats,” one senior staffer said. “Democrats are spoon-fed by their leadership, but Republicans care about the actual policy and want a whip who knows the members, knows the policy, and knows how to make those work together to deliver wins for the House.”

While the race has begun to intensify, many within the conference said they believe it’s too early for a clear front-runner to emerge, with each of the three whip hopefuls possessing unique qualities that could potentially give them an edge with certain factions and dissuade others from supporting them.

“I mean, listen, I can make a case for all three of them: Jim runs the largest conference in our caucus, Drew’s been chief deputy whip and is really good at member-to-member relationships, and Tom has done as good a job at the NRCC as you could possibly do,” a third lawmaker said.

“You know, he’s an ex-hockey player, but we almost treat him like a coach right? Team always comes first. It can be a tougher job being the weapon of majority, and one thing you learn to do at NRCC is tell people no and hold them accountable.”

Emmer’s allies said that his relationships with candidates and the efforts he’s making to get them elected will help give him a sizable boost in backing with incoming freshmen, arguing that it would be hard to deny the head of the House GOP’s campaign arm support if the party picks up a significant amount of seats.

“He’s going to be one of the guys primarily responsible for us taking off with the majority, and he’s definitely a conservative, but he also understands that there are moderates and that moderates are the majority-makers, and he’ll be able to best, I think, balance all of those highly competing interests, and he’s not going to sacrifice his principles to do so,” one senior lawmaker told the Washington Examiner.

“It’s really interesting because there is a pocket of, like, die-hard Banks people, there’s a pocket of die-hard Drew people, and a lot of that is being driven by the fact that these people just committed early and they don’t want to go back on their commitment. But the vast majority of the conference is wide open to me,” another member added.

“His [Emmer] breadth of support is pretty staggering when you’re talking to people — he doesn’t have a geographical base or an ideological base. It’s just a wide swath of the conference, which is going to make it difficult to beat him.”

But two conservatives said some within the far-right faction may direct their support toward Banks or Ferguson, citing problems with his vote to support gay marriage and certify the 2020 election results, with critics arguing they want someone that takes a harder line on social issues.

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While Emmer has been lauded for his work on recruiting and aiding campaigns, Ferguson allies said he has also hit the campaign trail and cut checks to an array of candidates who could provide him with a boost.

“Drew Ferguson has done a lot for candidates this year. He’s got a great relationship with a lot of people. He’s been a really good chief deputy whip,” one ally said. “You know, losers don’t vote, so people are going to be happy with Emmer and Ferguson because only people who win their races are going to vote.”

And while Banks has locked down a key base of support from RSC members, one conservative lawmaker told the Washington Examiner that some within the House Freedom Caucus remain skeptical of backing him after he opted not to join the group despite indicating he would prior to being elected. But one senior operative argued that Banks’s relationship with former President Donald Trump, whom he led a group of RSC members to meet with on Tuesday, could be beneficial in the race.

Despite multiple sources with knowledge stating it’s highly unlikely House Republican Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik (R-NY) will jump into the race, a change of course could happen as she weighs her next moves.

Stefanik was in New York on Monday, campaigning for Republican gubernatorial nominee Rep. Lee Zeldin, and declined, through an adviser, to comment for this story on her leadership plans for the next cycle. But a GOP source said the No. 3 ranking House Republican is simply choosing not to be presumptuous about the outcome of the midterm elections and focus on helping her party win as big of a majority as possible.

“While other members talk about not measuring the drapes, they clearly are except for Stefanik,” the GOP source said. “Stefanik is playing this smart by focusing on doing her current job well and winning the majority.” However, this Republican was quick to add that if Stefanik “runs for whip, she’ll be a clear front-runner, which is why she has essentially frozen the field until she decides.”

While the outcome of the race remains unclear, one seasoned member noted that contenders will have to prove their whipping capabilities to obtain the job.

“If you are going to become the whip, you’ve got to win the frickin job — anybody can be a surveyor, but if you’re going to persuade the majority, the job is hard,” the member said.

David Drucker contributed to this report.