Election Day is finally here. President Trump will battle Democratic challenger Joe Biden to win 270 electoral votes while Republicans defend their 53-47 Senate majority from a strong challenge by Democrats.
Here is what to look for while at home following the action. All times are in the Eastern time zone.
[PREDICT TUESDAY’S WINNER WITH THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER’S INTERACTIVE ELECTORAL MAP]
Florida: It has the earliest poll closing time of the major battleground states, though that has not always meant that results are reported quickly. Florida was at the center of a protracted recount fight between George W. Bush and Al Gore in 2000. It has been close most subsequent years. Republicans defied the polls in 2018 to win the governorship narrowly with Ron DeSantis and hold Rick Scott’s Senate seat.
Most of Florida’s polling places close at 7 p.m., but voting continues until 8 p.m. in the conservative Panhandle. Early and mail-in voting is expected to be reported first since state officials are allowed to tabulate them before Election Day. Those two factors could mean a Trump surge late if he is to carry the state, though Biden is ahead by a slim margin in most of the polling averages. Florida has 29 electoral votes.
Georgia: Polls close at 7 p.m., though the mail-in vote results are not expected as quickly. No Democratic presidential nominee has won Georgia since Bill Clinton in 1992, but Biden has made a real push here after close statewide races two years ago. Trump won by 5 points in 2016, but as in much of the rest of the country, affluent suburban voters have turned against the GOP under this president. Combined with strong turnout from the black community, Democrats view it as a pickup opportunity.
Georgia also has two competitive Senate races, with Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, both Republicans and both up for election. In addition to Democratic opponents, Loeffler also faces conservative GOP Rep. Doug Collins in this all-party “jungle” election. In both contests, the front-running candidate needs to exceed 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff. Georgia has 16 electoral votes.
South Carolina: Polls close at 7 p.m. The main race to watch is that of Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Republican incumbent who finds himself in a surprisingly difficult matchup against well-funded Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison. If Graham loses, it improves the Democrats’ chances of capturing the Senate majority.
Republicans are also hoping to retake the Charleston-area House seat formerly occupied by Mark Sanford, who lost his 2018 GOP primary to a Trump-endorsed challenger who couldn’t hang on in the general election. Freshman Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham is squaring off against Republican state Rep. Nancy Mace.
Another thing to watch is Trump’s margin. If he wins easily, it will be a positive sign for reliable red states, but if the state is close, it could be an indication of trouble. South Carolina has 9 electoral votes.
New Hampshire: Polls begin closing at 7 p.m., but there, it is up to local governments. This is one of the states Hillary Clinton narrowly won in 2016 and a top Trump target this year. Biden is comfortably ahead in most polls, but if Trump competes or leads, it could be a warning of Democratic underperformance. New Hampshire has 4 electoral votes.
Ohio: Polls close at 7:30 p.m. in the battleground state Trump won most easily, by 8.1 points, in 2016. He carried 80 out of 88 counties. But recent polling has suggested a closer race, with Biden hoping to juice turnout in Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati in order to turn the state blue. Former Gov. John Kasich, who sought the 2016 GOP presidential nomination, has endorsed Biden.
Ohio was another state where Republicans outperformed their 2018 poll numbers to hang on to the governorship. No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio, which has supported the losing candidate for the White House only twice since 1896. Ohio has 18 electoral votes.
North Carolina: Polls close at 7:30 p.m., though voting can be extended in the case of long waits. (UPDATE: No results will be announced until after 8:15 p.m. because late starts at several polling sites led to their voting hours being extended.) A once reliably Republican state, North Carolina has become more competitive in recent years. Barack Obama won here in 2008, the first Democrat to do so since Jimmy Carter in 1976. It was the only major battleground to vote for Mitt Romney in 2012; Trump won in 2016. Here, too, Democrats hope a coalition of black voters and college-educated suburbanites can flip the state for Biden.
Sen. Thom Tillis is another vulnerable Republican incumbent. He faces Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham, who appeared to have momentum until becoming ensnared in a sexting scandal. North Carolina has 15 electoral votes.
Pennsylvania: Polls close at 8 p.m., though election officials have already warned it could take days to sift through the mail-in ballots, which legally could not be counted prior to Election Day. This is believed to be a must-win state, especially for Trump, who won here in 2016. Biden is hoping to exploit his Scranton ties and turn out voters in the Philadelphia suburbs, which Trump will try to counter with the rural vote. Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes.
Alabama: Polls close at 8 p.m. Former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville has the best chance of any Republican to unseat a sitting Democratic senator. Sen. Doug Jones narrowly beat Republican Roy Moore to fill the remainder of Jeff Sessions’s Senate term. Now, Jones is running for reelection with Trump on the ballot and after siding with the national liberal party leadership in opposing Justice Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination to the Supreme Court. Alabama has 9 electoral votes.
Maine: Polls close at 8 p.m. Sen. Susan Collins is seeking a fifth term and facing the toughest reelection fight of her career. Her Democratic opponent is Sara Gideon, the speaker of the Maine House. Collins broke with the national GOP and voted against Barrett. She has tried to emphasize her centrism and independence, while Democrats attempt to tie her to Trump. Trump is also competing for a single electoral vote from Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, which he carried four years ago. Maine has 4 electoral votes.
Michigan: Polls close at 8 p.m. This was one of Trump’s narrowest wins four years ago, and it could be an early indicator of whether his advantage in the Rust Belt, where he punctured the Democrats’ “blue wall,” still holds. The Republicans’ other Senate pickup opportunity is a contest with Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, whose poll numbers have at times been lackluster against GOP challenger John James. Wayne County looms large for Democrats, Macomb for Republicans, after Trump won there by a double-digit margin in 2016. Michigan has 16 electoral votes.
Texas: Polls close at 8 p.m. (7 p.m. locally). Long a Republican bastion, it is a great Democratic hope to turn Texas blue. Trump’s lead in the state’s polls has been underwhelming, and Republican Sen. Ted Cruz only defeated Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke by 51% to 48% in 2018. The Trump campaign has expressed confidence that Democrats are deluding themselves about Biden’s chances. But if Biden can assemble a coalition of Hispanics and suburbanites against Trump, it could be a sign of a blowout. Sen. John Cornyn, a Republican, is up for reelection in a less competitive race. Texas has 38 electoral votes.
Kansas: Polls close at 8 p.m. (7 p.m. locally). Typically a Republican stronghold, Democrats are hoping to replicate their 2018 gubernatorial victory in the race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Pat Roberts. But this time, Kris Kobach did not win the Republican primary, and Trump will be on the ballot. This is another state to watch to see whether Trump underperforms in usually safe red states. Kansas has 6 electoral votes.
Wisconsin: Polls close at 9 p.m. (8 p.m. local). Trump was the first Republican presidential candidate to win this state since Ronald Reagan in 1984, but it was his third-narrowest margin. Biden will try to close the gap. Whether he can turn out black voters in Milwaukee County may give us a sense of how successful his get-out-the-vote operations will be with that crucial Democratic bloc. Democrats won here in 2018, denying Republican Gov. Scott Walker a third term. Clinton’s failure to campaign here was considered one of the biggest mistakes of 2016. Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes.
Minnesota: Polls close at 9 p.m. (8 p.m. local). Unlike Wisconsin, this is a state that got away from Trump in 2016. But he came within 45,000 of becoming the first Republican to win the state since Richard Nixon in 1972, and his campaign hopes to reverse that this year. Former Republican Rep. Jason Lewis appears to face a more uphill battle against Democratic Sen. Tina Smith. Minnesota has 10 electoral votes.
Arizona: Polls close at 9 p.m. (7 p.m. local). Democrats are trying to turn the state that sent Barry Goldwater to the Senate blue. If Biden can win here, it could signal a Sunbelt shift away from Trump. Democrats will try to turn out liberals who moved in from other states and Hispanic voters. Appointed GOP Sen. Martha McSally is also running for a full term after losing to Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema in 2018. She now faces Democrat Mark Kelly, husband of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords. Maricopa County is key in both races. Arizona has 11 electoral votes.
Colorado: Polls close at 9 p.m. (7 p.m. local). Republican Sen. Cory Gardner is an underdog to former Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper. Formerly a swing state, it has become increasingly blue. Colorado has 9 electoral votes.
Iowa: Polls close at 10 p.m. (9 p.m. local). It has become a battleground after Trump won by 9.4 points last time, although the most recent Des Moines Register poll gives him the edge. Obama won here twice. Democrats are also trying to unseat GOP Sen. Joni Ernst. A win by Theresa Greenfield would increase the likelihood of a Democratic Senate. Iowa has 6 electoral votes.
Nevada: Polls close at 10 p.m. (7 p.m. local). This is a state Trump lost by a slim margin in 2016 and is trying to pick off this time around. Biden leads in most polls. Nevada has 6 electoral votes.
Montana: Polls close at 10 p.m. (8 p.m. local). Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock is trying to defeat Republican Sen. Steve Daines. Democratic Sen. Jon Tester was reelected here in 2018. This might be another state to watch to see what Trump’s margins look like in a state that is usually Republican at the presidential level. Montana has 3 electoral votes.
After this point, it could get to be a late night if the election is competitive.
